Impeachment Vote May Come Back to Haunt Republicans

(Bloomberg) --

Nancy Pelosi’s plan for an impeachment-related House vote this week threatens to put Donald Trump’s defenders in a tight spot.

The speaker’s decision to counter charges that the closed-door probe is illegitimate with a vote on the next steps poses a dilemma for Republicans: They can defy a president still popular with the conservative base or go on record effectively opposing an effort that’s gaining public support, without knowing what other damaging revelations may emerge.

In a sign that Pelosi’s move has already blunted attacks, Republican senators said the House vote could change their plans for a resolution — sponsored by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Trump ally Lindsey Graham — condemning the inquiry.

And another potential bombshell is looming. Investigating committees are set to get key evidence today when a former Army officer assigned to the White House National Security Council testifies he listened to Trump’s July 25 call with Ukraine’s president and was so disturbed by it that he reported it to the NSC’s legal counsel.

With the probe poised to move into its public phase — and more testimony to come — Republicans may one day rue demanding to formally weigh in this early in the process.

Global Headlines

Erdogan’s edge? | Trump’s White House once explored whether the U.S. could cut off taxpayer funding for a network of charter schools affiliated with a political opponent of Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Jennifer Jacobs, Saleha Mohsin and Nick Wadhams report. The 2017 episode could raise more difficult questions for Trump about his relationship with Erdogan, whose military operation this month in Syria has drawn fire from fellow Republicans.

• The U.S. House will vote today on a bipartisan bill to sanction Turkey over its campaign in northern Syria.

Try, try again | British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will try for a fourth time today to persuade Parliament to approve a snap election so he can win the majority he needs to ratify his deal to pull the U.K. out of the European Union. One thing’s certain: He’s failed in his “do-or-die” pledge to make Brexit a reality by Oct. 31. Click here to read about how the twists in Brexit point to an upcoming ballot. 

• The U.K. treasury will melt down thousands of 50-pence coins minted to commemorate Brexit on Oct. 31 after Johnson accepted an extension from the EU, Jessica Shankleman and Alex Morales report.

No vote | Hong Kong disqualified prominent activist Joshua Wong from running in November local elections, a hit to protesters’ efforts to win greater sway in the city after months of demonstrations against China’s influence. Wong has supported “self-determination” for the financial hub, a position authorities equate with advocating independence.

Signs of trouble | Joe Biden risks a potentially crippling third- or fourth-place finish in the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses. Tyler Pager spoke to nearly a dozen senior Democrats in the state and reports what they see as a poorly organized operation that has failed to engage with voters and party leaders. Top Democrats say that could set Biden — the presumed front-runner — finishing behind Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg or others.

All change | Fresh from winning Sunday’s election, President-elect Alberto Fernandez is signaling an abrupt change in Argentina’s foreign policy. Out goes any semblance of good relations with neighboring Brazil and in come warmer ties with Mexico, Bolivia — and perhaps Venezuela. As Juan Pablo Spinetto reports, if Fernandez weakens ties with Washington, it could open the door for greater cooperation with Beijing.

What to Watch

• Lebanon’s central bank governor is warning that a political solution is needed within “days” to avoid economic collapse and restore public confidence after 12 days of anti-government protests.
• General Motors, Toyota and several other automakers plan to intervene on the Trump administration’s behalf in a contentious battle with Californian officials over automobile emissions rules.
• Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg is set to express sadness over two deadly 737 Max crashes and acknowledge “mistakes” during a high-stakes appearance before U.S. lawmakers today.
• Italian right-wing populist Matteo Salvini, who staged a failed summer coup, is back after scoring a thumping win in a local election in a region that had been a safe center-left stronghold for half a century.

Tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally ... Chinese women who give birth out of wedlock have long been shunned by society and faced discrimination by the government. But a societal shift is underway as the Communist Party looks to boost a slowing birthrate after the number of babies born in China dropped to its lowest level in almost 60 years in 2018. Bloomberg News spoke to some of the women who will be affected by the change.

--With assistance from Karen Leigh, Tim Ross, Alan Crawford and Ben Sills.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Winfrey at mwinfrey@bloomberg.net, Karl Maier

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