Brazil Markets Fall for TV Star Flirting With Presidential Run
Huck, the Brazil TV Star, Teases Markets With Presidential Talk
(Bloomberg) -- It was a largely uneventful appearance for TV celebrity Luciano Huck on Brazil’s most-watched Sunday evening show -- until he started talking about politics. That’s when many viewers at home shifted in their seats, inching toward their screens.
Huck then proceeded to deliver a passionate discourse on the need to fix a broken political class, introducing ethics and altruism while mobilizing a new generation. Finally, the punchline: "If I failed to try to improve things, I’d be a coward," Huck said with his wife, Angelica, standing at his side. "Whatever destiny and God want of me, I’ll go along with."
Much in the way that Oprah Winfrey’s Golden Globes speech -- which, curiously, came that same day -- was seen as something of an opening salvo in her political career, the TV appearance by Huck (pronounced hoo-key in Portuguese) was read by many here as a clear sign of presidential aspirations. The U.S. elections aren’t until late 2020, though. Brazil’s are just nine months away. And so there’s a real sense of immediacy to the will-Huck-run question, especially for those in financial and business circles desperate to back a centrist candidate who they believe would be capable of sustaining the country’s recovery from a crippling political and economic crisis.
‘About Brazil’
In some ways, Huck -- a 46-year-old Sao Paulo native who studied law -- is the dream candidate investors have been pining for. Not only does he have the kind of Main Street appeal that most other centrist candidates lack, thanks to his role as a TV variety-show host, but he also has business experience. Counseled by the legendary Rio de Janeiro investor Arminio Fraga, Huck founded his own investment firm for startups. In a cryptic e-mailed response to questions about his relationship with Huck, Fraga would only say the two men have spoken together “about Brazil.”
"He’d have a very strong chance of winning," said Renato Nobile, CEO of Bullmark Financial Group. "He ticks off many of the right boxes, both for the financial market and for the people fed up with traditional politics."
The image of a kite-surfing, entrepreneurial family man not only contrasts sharply with the septuagenarians that currently dominate government but may also strike a chord with many voters clamoring for a younger generation of clean and more representative politicians.
“Huck’s Big Cauldron” has been a staple of Saturday afternoon TV for almost two decades. It features music, competitions, celebrities and the hard-luck stories of ordinary Brazilians who occasionally weep with gratitude for their chance to appear on the show. Huck -- a trim, athletic sort with an impish grin -- plays the ringleader through it all, laughing and commiserating with guests and the audience.
Speculation around his candidacy reflects in part the desperation of many Brazilians to find a savior to put the nation back on track after years of corruption scandals and recession. "Brazil has a history of media stars seen to be doing something for the poor," says Carlos Manhanelli, a Sao Paulo-based electoral marketing consultant. "It’s folly to think he can just repeat in real life what he does on TV."
For over three years, Brazilians have watched many of their leading entrepreneurs and politicians get tossed in jail as authorities uncovered massive schemes of kick-backs that financed election campaigns and luxurious consumption.
Crowded Field Ahead
President Dilma Rousseff was impeached amid the scandal in 2016 and her replacement, Michel Temer, has been hounded by corruption charges since he assumed office. Add to that a brutal recession that fueled millions of job losses, and you’ve got a whole lot of unhappy people. Brazilians’ satisfaction with democracy is the lowest in the region, polls show.
Yet betting on a candidate with no political experience at all to forge a broad-based coalition out of the more than two dozen parties in Congress comes with no shortage of risks.
"He would need the support of the big Brazilian parties," said Maria Herminia Tavares de Almeida, a political scientist at the University of Sao Paulo. “And I don’t think that they will support him.”
Indeed, most major parties are looking to put forth their own candidates, and the field looks quite crowded with Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles and lower house chief Rodrigo Maia vying with Sao Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin to be the candidate of the center.
In the Wings
If Huck winds up splitting the centrist vote with them, it could pave the way for the election of a more radical candidate, like Jair Bolsonaro, the ex-military officer, or even embattled former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
"The more fragmented, the worse it’ll be," said Pedro Barbosa, fixed-income strategist at Renascenca brokerage in Sao Paulo.
Huck, for his part, continues to play coy. Shortly after his TV appearance, he said in a Facebook post that he’s “not a candidate for anything,” reiterating a statement he had made in November. According to Cristiano Noronha, a political scientist at Arko Advice consultancy, he is likely to sit on the fence for a while longer as he assesses his chances. If, for instance, support remains flat for Alckmin, he could detect an opportunity to jump into the race.
Whether his TV talent can translate into politics may be in doubt, but the media flurry surrounding his possible candidacy has only further swelled his social-media following. It now stands at 43.4 million people. That’s five times more than that of any other candidate.
To contact the reporters on this story: Raymond Colitt in Brasilia at rcolitt@bloomberg.net, Bruce Douglas in Brasilia Newsroom at bdouglas24@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Vivianne Rodrigues at vrodrigues3@bloomberg.net, David Papadopoulos, Robert Jameson
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