How Trump’s Bin Laden Moment Might Fall Short

(Bloomberg) --

The U.S. killing of Islamic State’s feared chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in northern Syria is a timely result for Donald Trump.

He’s faced a barrage of criticism for his abrupt decision to stand by as Turkey went into Syria and attacked the Kurds — a people who’ve been the tip of the spear in the fight against IS.

The U.S. special forces operation to take out al-Baghdadi could also give Trump a boost in his struggle against impeachment at home.

IS’s murderous reputation feeds into Trump’s narrative that the House impeachment inquiry is a distraction from his efforts to keep Americans safe. He can liken it to the “Bin Laden” moment of the Obama administration, when the U.S. killed the jihadist who planned the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

But killing Baghdadi is not without risk. While IS has suffered a blow, it had already decentralized some structures and proved capable of attacks as far away as Africa, Asia and Europe. His death may rally supporters. Much depends on who, if anyone, replaces him.

The Turkish offensive inside Syria has also seen Kurds abandon prisons where they held IS fighters. It’s unclear exactly how many escaped, and to where.

Trump may want out of what he sees as other peoples’ messy wars. But it’s too soon to say if Islamic State will oblige him.

Global Headlines

Another extension | The European Union this morning granted the U.K. a delay to Brexit until Jan. 31. In London, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is pushing for a vote in the House of Commons this afternoon to trigger an early general election, saying it’s the only way to resolve the deadlock that has stopped the U.K. ratifying an exit deal.

Full steam ahead | House Democrats are moving closer to impeaching Trump even after his battlefield victory. History suggests Trump may enjoy a boost in public support after the raid, but it will likely be short-lived. That gives Democrats little incentive to slow down. The inquiry resumes today with testimony from Charles Kupperman, a former deputy national security adviser.

• The New York City lawmaker whose district includes much of Manhattan and Trump Tower has the inside track to take over a committee with a leading role in the impeachment inquiry.

Peronism returns | Alberto Fernandez won Argentina’s presidential vote yesterday, defeating pro-market incumbent Mauricio Macri and tilting the nation back to left-wing populism. While voters rejected the austerity of Macri’s government, the outcome was closer than expected, reflecting concern about Fernandez’s ability to steer the economy out of a protracted slump.

• Read here how the central bank immediately tightened capital controls further.
• Fernandez set the stage for a first diplomatic tiff with his call for Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva to be freed.

Angry Europeans | For all the relief that populists failed to make a breakthrough in this year’s European elections, mainstream parties are still under pressure. The latest reminder came yesterday when Merkel’s Christian Democrats slumped in a state election from first to third — behind the far-right nationalist Alternative for Germany — and the Italian coalition was hammered by the anti-immigrant League in a regional vote.

Power plenum | Chinese Leader Xi Jinping looks set to use a closed-door session of the Central Committee to push his political agenda and tighten the ruling Communist Party’s control over the country of some 1.4 billion people. The meeting, which runs through Thursday, could result in a new leadership beneath Xi as he battles Trump on trade.

What to Watch This Week

• Uruguay’s presidential election will go to a Nov. 24 runoff after none of the candidates reached the 50%-plus-one threshold needed to win in a first round of voting.
• White House adviser Jared Kushner and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin plan to attend Saudi Arabia’s annual investment forum, which Mnuchin skipped last year because of the kingdom’s role in the murder of columnist Jamal Khashoggi.
• Mozambique President Filipe Nyusi won a second term by a landslide in the natural-gas-rich nation’s Oct. 15 elections that the main opposition rejected as a “mega fraud.”
• Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg will testify tomorrow at a Senate hearing examining the safety and the future of Boeing’s 737 Max jetliner.

Thanks to all who responded to our pop quiz Friday and congrats to reader John Wattick, who was the first to correctly name Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic presidential candidate whose campaign hired two people recommended by Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg. Tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally ... The hometown crowd met Trump with loud jeers last night during Game 5 of the World Series, straining the unifying power of the Washington Nationals and their quest for the capital’s first title in almost a century. The president, seated in an open-air VIP box perched over home plate, drew sustained and loud boos — along with scattered chants of “lock him up” — when he was shown on the stadium’s jumbotron.

--With assistance from Kathleen Hunter, Jon Herskovitz and Ben Sills.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Karl Maier at kmaier2@bloomberg.net, Alan Crawford

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