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How the U.K. Could Still Stumble Out of the EU With No Deal

How the U.K. Could Still Stumble Out of the EU With No Deal

(Bloomberg) --

A no-deal Brexit is back in play.

Theresa May’s negotiating strategy has zigzagged between the pro-and anti-Brexit factions in her Conservative Party to stop her government from splitting apart. Next week, with hours to go before the Brexit deadline, another such moment of choice could come -- and there are fears in Brussels and London that she will put her party’s interests before the U.K.’s prosperity.

Against the odds, May is still trying to get her twice-rejected divorce deal approved in Parliament. Her aim is to put the agreement -- along with some new guarantees on the much loathed Irish backstop -- back to the House of Commons for a vote on Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

If members of Parliament reject the deal for a third time, the EU will probably call an emergency summit on March 28. That’s just one day before Brexit day. By this point the EU has made clear it will want a long extension to the negotiations, potentially for a year or more, to allow time for a total rewrite of the Brexit blueprint and even a British general election or another referendum.

How the U.K. Could Still Stumble Out of the EU With No Deal

The bloc doesn’t want to get trapped in a short extension period that will inevitably need to be extended again. The EU also says it won’t allow the U.K. to stay in beyond May 23 unless the prime minister agrees to hold European Parliament elections -- a prospect she is fiercely resisting.

So unless Brussels backs down and agrees to postpone the cliff-edge deadline -- which it might -- May will face a choice the night before Brexit: Does she want a long delay that allies say will splinter her party, or a no-deal departure that will shatter the economy?

Parliament has voted repeatedly against leaving the EU without a deal, but that does not stop it happening by accident. Time is almost up for a divided Parliament to take control of the process out of May’s hands to avert an economically disastrous no-deal split.

For now, May is sticking to her position that the only way to prevent a no-deal Brexit is for MPs to vote for her deal. Next week will reveal whether she really means it.

To contact the reporter on this story: Emma Ross-Thomas in London at erossthomas@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Stuart Biggs

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