Jokowi Set to Win Second Term in Indonesia Vote, Calls for Unity

(Bloomberg) -- Indonesian President Joko Widodo was poised to win another term running the world’s largest Muslim-majority country, even as opponent Prabowo Subianto signaled he would challenge the outcome.

Seven top private polling agencies had Widodo, known as Jokowi, ahead of the former general by at least seven percentage points with about 95 percent of the vote counted. While election authorities must confirm any final outcome over the next few weeks, results from private companies have proven accurate in past elections.

“Let’s be united again as brothers and countrymen after the election, weaving unity and brotherhood,” Jokowi told a crowd of cheering supporters who were chanting his name. He didn’t declare victory, saying he would wait for official results.

Another five years in power for Jokowi would be welcome news for investors betting on the 57-year-old leader to pass measures that could unlock growth in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy.

The market responded positively to the early count, with one-month non-deliverable forwards for dollar-rupiah falling as much as 0.9 percent -- the biggest decline in a month -- to 14,042 as of 7.22 p.m. in Jakarta. The local stocks, currency and bond markets were closed for voting.

A second term for Jokowi indicates a renewed focus on the reforms that marked his first term, including development of infrastructure and human capital, said Anushka Shah, vice president and senior analyst at Moody’s Investors Service.

"This policy mix has been supportive for investment and broader stability in growth," Shah said. "A stable growth environment will in turn foster financial market stability, which is crucial, given the high share of foreign ownership in the bond market.”

After losing to Jokowi in the 2014 presidential election, Prabowo challenged the results in a lawsuit that was eventually dismissed by the constitutional court. Late on Wednesday, Prabowo said his team’s quick counts showed he won 62.2 percent of the vote nationwide.

Threat of Chaos

“If there is chaos or not, it will not come from us, that I guarantee,” Prabowo, an army general who served as a special forces commander during the 32-year reign of the dictator Suharto, said after casting his ballot. “But we don’t want to be cheated anymore. The Indonesian people won’t be cheated anymore.”

As many as 193 million Indonesians were eligible to vote in Wednesday’s elections, which also determined the make-up of the legislature. Jokowi had the support of 10 parties that together account for about 60 percent of the strength of the outgoing parliament.

Preliminary results showed Jokowi’s PDI-P with 20.9 percent of the vote in the legislative election, a slight increase on 19.5 percent in 2014, according to Kompas. Golkar and PKB -- both partners in his coalition had 12 percent and 9.9 percent respectively. Gerindra was on 12.8 percent, in line with the 13 percent it garnered five years ago.

This legislative race is crucial, as parties need 20 percent of the popular vote or 25 percent of seats in parliament to be able to nominate a president, or they have to form coalitions to meet those thresholds.

Promise of Jobs

The president sought re-election on a pledge of providing free education, millions of jobs for the country’s young population and continuing an infrastructure building boom that saw him unveil $350 billion of projects in his first term.

Prabowo had promised to revive Indonesia’s manufacturing sector while railing against Indonesia’s current account deficit and the inability of the current administration to spur economic growth much beyond 5 percent. He ran a more nationalist campaign, with promises to tackle economic inequality and review Chinese investments.

Authorities remained on alert after polling stations closed amid concerns of potential unrest. In Jakarta, armored vehicles were parked in front of shopping malls, while tens of thousands of security forces were deployed around the capital.

Growing Conservatism

Two years ago, the Prabowo-backed pair of Anies Baswedan and Sandiaga Uno won a divisive gubernatorial election in the capital Jakarta. That race, dominated by mass street protests aimed ousting then-incumbent Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, a Chinese Christian and Jokowi ally later jailed for insulting the Koran, was seen as boosting Prabowo’s fortunes ahead of the 2019 election.

That also ensured the presidential race would be set against the backdrop of a growing influence of conservative Islam. To many observers, the unrest seen two years ago prompted Widodo to pick a leading Muslim cleric in Ma’ruf Amin as his running mate.

This election is “much more about political identity” compared to the 2014 race, said Aaron Connelly, a Singapore-based research fellow from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Jokowi has sought to co-opt a number of Islamic conservatives," Connolly said, noting his choice of Amin was designed to "make a number of Muslims who might feel uncomfortable voting for Jokowi feel a little more comfortable voting for him.”

“Prabowo is backed by a number of political conservatives," he said. "He’s seen as the candidate of Islamic conservatives even though he himself is not particularly religious."

--With assistance from Tassia Sipahutar, Rieka Rahadiana, Eko Listiyorini, Yoga Rusmana, Harry Suhartono, Fathiya Dahrul, Clarissa Batino and Yudith Ho.

To contact the reporters on this story: Karlis Salna in Jakarta at ksalna@bloomberg.net;Arys Aditya in Jakarta at aaditya5@bloomberg.net;Viriya Singgih in Jakarta at vsinggih@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ruth Pollard at rpollard2@bloomberg.net, Thomas Kutty Abraham, Daniel Ten Kate

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