Georgia Is Suddenly in Play for Democrats in 2020
GOP Bastion Georgia Is Suddenly in Play for Democrats in 2020
(Bloomberg) -- Republicans have had a hammerlock on Georgia for a generation. It could slip away — if Democrats decide to make it a fight.
The state is a must-win for President Donald Trump. Republicans are defending two U.S. Senate seats that may swing control of the chamber. Democrats remain underdogs, but population growth in the diverse and booming Atlanta area, along with the exodus of educated women from the GOP, have made them competitive in a state they’ve carried just once since 1980.
The Democratic National Committee announced this week it would hold the fifth presidential debate in Georgia. Party spokesman David Bergstein proclaimed that Georgia is “a defensive liability for Republicans and it’s rapidly emerging as a battleground state.”
Trump super-PAC America First Action has placed Georgia among its six “tier one” states that it will compete heavily in — along with the perennially competitive swing states of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan. Now they say they’re prepared to pour resources into hanging on to what has been a conservative bastion.
Brian Walsh, president of America First Action, put Georgia in the same category as Ohio, one of the most heavily contested states that has picked every president for the last half-century.
“I think we’re going to win Ohio and I think we’re going to win Georgia, but we’re not going to take them for granted,” Walsh said. “And we’re going to pay attention to them all the way through.”
Trump’s job approval rating is statistically tied in the state at 49% positive to 48% negative, according to a Morning Consult poll in September. That’s well above his national rating across major polls. His net approval rating is slightly lower in Pennsylvania and Ohio, and even lower in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Georgia last voted to put a Democrat in the White House in 1992, when Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton eked out a victory there before losing it in 1996. In the previous three decades, the only Democrat to carry the state in a presidential election was ex-Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter.
Yet Hillary Clinton came just 5 points from victory there in 2016, and Stacey Abrams, the Democratic nominee for governor in 2018, lost by only 55,000 votes of nearly 4 million cast. She set up the group Fair Fight to register voters and battle voter suppression measures she blamed for her defeat. She has declined appeals to run for one of the Senate seats, but insists the state is winnable.
Citing Georgia’s 16 electoral votes and both its Senate seats on the ballot in 2020, Abrams said in an email to Bloomberg that “any viable strategy to Democratic control of the White House and the Senate must include Georgia. With a smart strategy that continues to expand the electorate, Democrats can win in Georgia in 2020.”
Census figures show Georgia’s population grew by about 1 million — or 9% — between 2010 and 2018. Much of that was driven by growth in the Atlanta metropolitan area, adding swaths of voters who powered Democrats to gains in the State Legislature last fall.
“The population is diversifying with growing numbers of Asians and Hispanics. Even the black population, percentage-wise, is growing,” said Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia. “The other element is the youth vote has gone Democratic. In 2018, like a lot of the country, suburban white women tilted a bit more Democratic.”
In 2016, Trump lost women by 11 points in Georgia, according to exit polls. But he won white women by 44 points, and he won white college-educated women by 29 points there. Those margins will be very difficult to sustain in 2020 as those educated women have soured on Trump across the country — and likely hold the keys for Democrats to flip the state.
“He doesn’t do well with that demographic,” Bullock said. “If there’s more urban and suburban turnout, especially women, he could be in a world of hurt.”
Apart from the presidential contest, Democrats are also motivated to capture two Republican-held seats up for grabs in Georgia. David Perdue faces his first re-election. And three-term Senator Johnny Isakson recently announced that he will resign at the end of the year for health reasons, making way for a special election on Nov. 3, 2020 -- when control of the White House and Congress will also be decided.
“The double opportunity we have in Georgia — it gives us a real strong chance now to become a majority in the Senate,” former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, told reporters on a recent conference call.
Democrats, however, have to decide whether it’s worth investing heavily the state if it means spending less in states where they’ve been traditionally more successful. Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan were decided by slimmer margins than Georgia — flipping them could be enough to defeat Trump.
Georgia is part of a riskier Sun Belt path to the presidency that has enticed some Democrats and hinges on bolstering non-white turnout and flipping states like Arizona and Florida.
And the party might have to spend money in states like New Hampshire and Minnesota, which Clinton won by fewer than 2 points in the 2016.
Guy Cecil, the chairman of the Democratic super-PAC Priorities USA, placed Georgia in the second tier of important states alongside Arizona and North Carolina, two traditionally Republican states where Democrats have won statewide in recent years.
He said his organization hasn’t decided where to commit resources yet but that the lure of two Senate seats make it likelier to compete heavily in Georgia.
“I can assure you there will be lots of robust conversations around Georgia, which I’m eager to have,” Cecil said. “It’s on our expansion list. And it’s something that we’ll look at.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Sahil Kapur in Washington at skapur39@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Wendy Benjaminson at wbenjaminson@bloomberg.net, John Harney
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