Germany Just Won’t Let Merkel Depart in Peace

(Bloomberg) --

In the end, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer’s departure was more decisive than her 13 months at the helm of Germany’s ruling Christian Democratic Union.

Kramp-Karrenbauer quit today as the leader of Angela Merkel’s party and the chancellor’s intended successor, taking the fall for a regional chapter that openly disobeyed her and aligned with the far-right AfD in an eastern state assembly.

In doing so, AKK, as she is known, blows open the race to succeed Merkel. Yet by acting resolutely, she caught out her critics and gave the CDU valuable time to find an alternative able to fight elections due next year.

AKK’s political future was evaporating in any case: She’d been struggling for months, and lost Merkel’s backing. Who will replace her is unclear. A new CDU leader may not be chosen until the next party convention in December.

Meanwhile, there is no evidence that members want to veer away from Merkel’s centrist course any more now than when they elected AKK in December 2018.

The episode certainly doesn’t burnish the CDU’s credentials at a time when it’s polling at historic lows. But surveys also suggest AfD support has peaked.

If there’s a winner from all this it’s the Greens. Untainted by the scandal, they look more electable by the day.

Global Headlines

Not-so-friendly fire | Democratic presidential candidates turned on each other ahead of tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary, abandoning a yearlong nonaggression pact as some candidates — notably long-time presumed front-runner Joe Biden — face potentially damaging defeats. The change in tone signals how the contest has shifted after Iowa’s delayed split decision.

• Amy Klobuchar, fresh off a strong debate performance, has risen to third in two tracking polls of New Hampshire voters.
• Click here for more about how Pete Buttigieg has become a favorite of Hollywood heavyweights.

Outbreak widens | The coronavirus global death toll hit 910, more than during SARS, as the World Health Organization voiced concern over the spread from people with no travel history to China. A cruise ship in Japan reported 66 more infections, taking the biggest outbreak outside China to 136.

• President Xi Jinping made his first public appearance in almost two weeks, after the death of a doctor who became a hero for speaking out about the virus.
• Singapore’s outbreak spread to its financial center. You can also read how the virus halted an industrial powerhouse the size of Sweden.

Ballot box ‘revolution’ | Sinn Fein delivered an electoral earthquake in Ireland, winning the popular vote for the first time on Saturday, beating Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael and the opposition Fianna Fail. While the parliamentary math means it won’t hold the most seats, the party long considered an outsider because of its links to the Irish Republican Army will be a key broker when the business of forming a government starts this week.

Military buildup | Turkey is sending armored vehicles and commandos to Idlib province in neighboring Syria in a bid to break the siege of its outposts by Bashar al-Assad’s forces. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened last week to take action if Syrian forces don't withdraw by the end of this month. A delegation from Russia, which backs Syria, visited Turkey on Saturday to discuss a standoff that’s soured relations between Moscow and Ankara.

Putin’s dilemma | If Vladimir Putin plans to retain power in Russia beyond 2024, he must first figure out how to keep his iron grip on parliament at elections next year. With his United Russia party near a historic low in opinion polls after five years of economic stagnation, Putin is counting on new Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to spark a growth spurt — even if brief — to boost living standards and avert potential election protests.

What to Watch This Week

• U.S. President Donald Trump is set today to unveil a $4.8 trillion fiscal 2021 budget proposal that would provide billions more in funding for defense and a U.S. mission to Mars, but would bring steep cuts to social programs. The plan assumes growth above 3% this year, exceeding mainstream analyst forecasts.
• Former President Rafael Correa goes on trial before Ecuador’s highest court today on charges of campaign finance fraud and accepting millions of dollars in bribes. Correa, who lives in Belgium with his wife, calls it a witch hunt.
• The UN Security Council may vote tomorrow on a softened version of a resolution voicing Arab countries’ criticism of Trump’s Middle East peace plan.
• Tariff reductions agreed to as part of the phase one U.S-China trade deal take effect Friday: Under the agreement, China will halve levies on some $75 billion of U.S. imports.
• NATO defense ministers will meet Wednesday and Thursday in Brussels. 

Thanks to all who responded to our pop quiz Friday and congratulations to reader Mat Sy, who was the first to correctly name Malawi as the African country where the Constitutional Court ordered fresh elections within five months after annulling the results of a presidential vote last year that the opposition said was rigged. Tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally ... First the fire. Now the flood. Torrential rains along Australia’s east coast downed power lines, damaged property and raised concerns of contaminated drinking water in the country’s wettest 24 hours since 1992. While the 176-millimeter (7-inch) deluge brought relief to drought-stricken areas and doused many of the wildfires ravaging the country, the wet weather isn’t over, with at least as much rain expected again by next weekend.

--With assistance from Rosalind Mathieson, Dara Doyle, Anthony Halpin and Michael Winfrey.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kathleen Hunter at khunter9@bloomberg.net, Karl Maier

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.