German Cases Steady, Infection Rate Stays Below Key Threshold

Germany’s coronavirus infection rate remained below the key threshold of 1.0 for a seventh day, and the number of new cases held far below the level at the height of the outbreak.

  • The reproduction factor -- or R value -- edged up to 0.83 on Tuesday, from 0.74 the previous day, according to the latest estimate by the country’s health body, the Robert Koch Institute. The value remains far below its level last week, when local outbreaks and increased testing lifted the number as high as 2.88.
  • The current estimate means that out of 100 people infected, a further 83 are likely to contract the virus. A number below 1.0 is seen as preventing exponential growth in the number of cases and a second wave of infections.
  • There were 376 new cases in the 24 hours through Wednesday morning, up from 349 the previous day and bringing the total to 195,418, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. That compares with almost 7,000 at the peak of the pandemic in late March.
  • There were 14 new fatalities, with the total number of deaths rising to 8,990.
  • The jump in the infection rate last month was driven by local outbreaks, including in two municipalities in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia near a meat plant where most of the workers contracted the virus.
    • The Weissenfels municipality in the state of Saxony-Anhalt ordered 2,200 workers at a meat processing plant to undergo compulsory coronavirus tests Tuesday after a contract worker tested positive, MDR television reported.
  • The virus reproduction factor may continue to fluctuate markedly, according to the RKI, since the current low number of new cases means that local incidents have a relatively strong influence.
  • The RKI also provides a seven-day R value designed to compensate for fluctuations. That value was 0.67 on Tuesday, up from 0.63 the previous day.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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