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Gaffes, Duplicity and Ballots: How the Tory Party Picks a Leader

Gaffes, Duplicity and Ballots: How the Tory Party Picks a Leader

(Bloomberg) -- The race to replace Prime Minister Theresa May has started and former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is the early favorite. But Tory leadership contests are curious beasts in which front-runners often don’t win.

Here’s a guide to how it works.

The Rules

  • Candidates need to be nominated by eight members of Parliament -- a higher bar than previously. Nominations open and close on June 10.
  • Conservative lawmakers then vote in a series of secret ballots to knock out the least popular candidates; sometimes candidates withdraw themselves.
  • Ballots continue until a shortlist of two emerges. Voting is scheduled for June 13, from 10 a.m. to 12 p.m., and then June 18, 19, and 20.
  • The final pair then take part in hustings around the country from June 22.
  • The Conservative Party’s estimated 160,000 members mail in their votes
  • The process wraps up in the week of July 22
  • May remains as prime minister until the successor is chosen

The Membership

As well as convincing colleagues in Parliament to back them, candidates must keep the party membership onside. Delivering the first can mean falling foul of the second, just as appealing to the membership amounts to nothing if the candidate is left off the final shortlist.

Gaffes, Duplicity and Ballots: How the Tory Party Picks a Leader

According to research conducted by academics at The Queen Mary/Sussex Party Members Project, 64% of card-carrying Tory members are men, and 48% are over the age of 65. Significantly, 86% regard leaving the European Union as the most important issue facing the country, according to the December analysis. A separate poll showed two-thirds of Conservative members back a no-deal exit.

Given those views, it’s not surprising ministers have been highlighting their euroskeptic credentials in recent weeks.

Johnson said on Tuesday the party faces extinction if it doesn’t deliver Brexit on Oct. 31, the latest deadline. He’s says a no-deal exit must be an option. Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab is also taking a hardline approach.

Gaffes, Duplicity and Ballots: How the Tory Party Picks a Leader

Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt campaigned to remain in the EU in 2016 but has since changed his mind and has frequently praised the economic opportunities of Brexit. Likewise Home Secretary Sajid Javid and Health Secretary Matt Hancock are both converts to the Brexit cause; it’s seen as a given that the next prime minister, unlike May, must be a bona fide Leaver.

Beyond Brexit

Though the majority of members see Europe as the key issue, a significant minority are focused on immigration and asylum, and others on the economy.

Longer term, many Conservatives realize the party needs to appeal more to younger and more ethnically diverse audiences. The Tory-supporting Onward research group highlighted that only 14% of people between the age of 18-24 would vote for the party now, compared to 62% for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party. Among over-65s, 56% lean Tory and 24% Labour.

The Tories will also find electoral success difficult if they completely alienate Remain supporters in both the party and the country.

Dangers Abound

In the last Tory leadership race, Michael Gove effectively destroyed Johnson’s campaign by dramatically withdrawing support for his fellow Brexiteer and announcing his own candidacy.

Gaffes, Duplicity and Ballots: How the Tory Party Picks a Leader

Though an extreme case, it was a reminder that any leadership hopeful must navigate pledges of loyalty, which the same MP can make to several candidates in exchange for the promise of a future role in government. On the flip side, duplicitous candidates may offer the same plum job to more than one MP.

Beware the Beauty Contest

A large field is often an indicator that some MPs are using the contest to set out ideas and to demonstrate their popularity -- rather than harboring ambitions to actually win. As junior “clean-skins” are trying to boost their profile, those higher up the ladder are competing for senior positions in the next administration. International Trade Secretary Liam Fox stood for the leadership in 2005 and 2016, both times securing Cabinet positions. This time, Fox is backing Hunt. Two outsiders, Kit Malthouse and James Cleverly, have already withdrawn due to lack of support.

Quiet Chats

Some candidates have been working the House of Commons tearooms and bars for years preparing for a future leadership bid, listening to colleagues’ concerns and -- crucially -- learning the names of obscure rank-and-file MPs who rarely get on TV.

For those coming late to the process, it’s considered bad form to suddenly ring colleagues asking for their support; the key is to send an outrider to invite potential backers for a quiet chat.

Gaffes and Skeletons

Gaffes, Duplicity and Ballots: How the Tory Party Picks a Leader

In 2005, front-runner David Davis’s chances were thwarted by a series of mis-steps, including campaigning with young women in tight T-shirts emblazoned with “It’s DD For Me.” His wife Doreen’s tabloid newspaper interview revealing how Davis ignored her didn’t help, and at the party’s annual conference his lackluster speech allowed relative newcomer David Cameron -- who spoke without notes -- to shine. Cameron won 68% of the members’ votes.

An ill-judged remark also decided the 2016 race, after Cameron quit after the Brexit referendum. The final two candidates were May and Andrea Leadsom, with some seeing the latter as the more obvious choice because she’d campaigned to leave. But Leadsom was forced to withdraw after clumsily suggesting that being a mother made her a better candidate -- May had previously spoken publicly about her unsuccessful desire for a family.

Leadsom is sticking more closely to her Brexit script this time around.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Emma Ross-Thomas

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