For 2020 Democratic Candidates, Russia Probe Remains a Sideshow

(Bloomberg) -- The probe into whether Donald Trump or his associates conspired with Russia to sway the 2016 election has consumed Washington for nearly two years. Yet it’s made barely a ripple on the campaign trail for more than a dozen Democrats vying for the White House.

Voters rarely mention it, and the Democrats running for president in 2020 are largely following their lead.

"It is worth noting that the only 2020 presidential candidate making the Mueller investigation central to their political argument is Donald J. Trump," Ian Sams, a spokesman for Senator Kamala Harris, said Sunday.

One of the lessons of the 2018 midterm elections, in which Democrats retook the House and scored significant wins in state and local elections, was that the Russia investigation doesn’t sway many voters. Attitudes about Trump, whether the investigations into his administration or perceptions about his character, are already entrenched. Voters are more tuned into issues such as income inequality, health care and taxes.

“Our campaign is about the issues that matter to people: raising their wages and incomes, giving their kids’ teachers a raise, expanding health care to all Americans, finally confronting the existential threat of climate change, using common sense to implement gun safety measures,” Sams said in a text message.

Mueller’s Report

Special Counsel Robert Mueller sent his conclusions to the Justice Department on Friday and Attorney General William Barr released a four-page summary Sunday. Barr said that while Mueller’s report does not “conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him.” Barr’s summary said that the Mueller report “did not establish” that Trump or members of his 2016 campaign coordinated with the Russian government to manipulate the election.

Even the progressives who have been focused on the Russia probe and the potential for a revelation that would topple Trump would be hard-pressed to find meaningful differences among the presidential candidates on the issue.

Full Disclosure

In a tweet that largely reflected the responses from most of the 2020 candidates to the end of Mueller’s investigation and the summary released by Barr, Beto O’Rourke said, “Release the full Mueller report to the American people and their representatives. There must be transparency and accountability.” Others like Harris, Senators Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar and candidate John Delaney similarly said the full report ought to be disclosed.

At her campaign launch Sunday outside Trump Tower in New York, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand took a dig at Trump when she said the U.S. public should be able to see the Mueller report.

“It’s not often that I agree with Richard Nixon, but he was right to say that the American people have a right to know whether or not their president is a crook,” she said.

Then she quickly turned to discussing the need to combat climate change and invest in the country’s infrastructure.

Moving On

For a lot of voters, that’s enough.

“I’m looking to the New York district court to come down on Trump for financial injustices and so on,” 59-year-old Roxanne Cordonier said at a rally for Democrat Pete Buttigieg in Greenville, South Carolina. “So I’m kind of glad it’s over; now we can move on.”

There’s little evidence that the probe has dented Trump’s standing with voters. The Gallup poll, which regularly tracks presidential job approval, has found Trump’s approval rating to be remarkably stable, between the high 30s and low 40s, since Mueller’s appointment in 2017.

Trump has repeated attacked the Mueller probe and depicted himself as the victim of a "witch hunt." He said Monday he’s "glad it’s over."

Even with the Mueller 22-month investigation wrapped up, Democrats in the House will continue their own probes of Trump, his administration and his businesses. Six committees, including Judiciary, Intelligence, Financial Services and Oversight, already have investigations under way. Party leaders are wary of being perceived by voters overreaching against Trump and have sought to tamp down the clamor for impeachment.

Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, said on MSNBC Sunday that Democrats would be wrong to try to end the Trump presidency by way of investigation, and should instead examine the root causes of what allowed him to rise to power.

“A figure like this president should never have been able to come within cheating distance of the Oval Office. And I fear that if we’re not paying attention to the causes that he’s a symptom of, then not only is it possible for him to succeed in 2020, but we could also find ourselves with another figure like him — or even worse — in the future.”

But some Democratic operatives still want the party’s candidates to lean in to the issue.

"Candidates should be running vigorously to stop this potential cover-up by Trump’s Department of Justice. It’s not only good politics but the republic may depend on it," said Zac Petkanas, a former aide to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. "Trump’s handpicked attorney general still refuses to commit to releasing the full report."

--With assistance from Jennifer Epstein and Emma Kinery.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sahil Kapur in Washington at skapur39@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Joe Sobczyk at jsobczyk@bloomberg.net, Wendy Benjaminson

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