Butina to Cohen: 5 Things to Watch This Week in U.S. Probes

(Bloomberg) -- Special Counsel Robert Mueller and U.S. prosecutors are far from finished in their investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election, President Donald Trump’s campaign, and his business and political circle, judging by recent court filings. But by the end of this week, some key early chapters will come closer to resolution.

Among the questions that may be answered in the coming days: Will Maria Butina change her plea to guilty, and could that reveal more about her Kremlin ties and associates? Will a high-profile and mysterious individual be forced to testify in front of Mueller’s grand jury?

Here’s a look at a busy few days in filings and hearings in Mueller’s investigation and others that touch on Trump, his business and Russian interference in the elections.

Dec. 11:

Manafort’s Big Decision

Will Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign chairman, fight Mueller’s claims that he blew up his plea deal by lying repeatedly, or will he proceed quietly to sentencing on March 5?

That’s what Manafort’s lawyers will reveal when they appear Tuesday afternoon with Mueller’s prosecutors before U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson in Washington. If they do seek to challenge the claims, details that were referenced -- but redacted -- in filings about how Manafort misled investigators could be made public. Mueller said broadly that Manafort lied about contacting a senior Trump administration official this year. Prosecutors also said he wasn’t truthful about his ties to Konstantin Kilimnik, his longtime translator and fixer in Ukraine. Mueller has said Kilimnik has ties to Russian intelligence.

Then Jackson would have to decide whether Manafort breached his plea deal by telling “multiple discernible lies” as a cooperator with Mueller, prosecutors said last week.

Manafort is in jail and won’t attend the hearing, but the proceedings may shed light on the mystery of what he’s hiding and why.

Will Flynn Say More About His Cooperation?

Michael Flynn, Trump’s former national security adviser, will respond in court Tuesday to a recommendation by Mueller that he avoid prison. The favorable filing last week means he’ll already have the prosecutors on his side when he’s sentenced on Dec. 18.

Flynn’s lawyers must decide if they’ll use the filing to say more about 19 debriefings that prosecutors say constitute Flynn’s “substantial assistance” to the special counsel’s investigation. Flynn pleaded guilty to lying about his contacts with Russia’s ambassador during the Trump transition and his undeclared lobbying for Turkey.

Mueller said Flynn is cooperating in three investigations, including providing “firsthand information about the content and context of interactions between the transition team and Russian government officials.” Will Flynn’s lawyers shed light on any of those cases, his interactions with Trump, or his dealings with Turkey? Will they discuss what motivated this former lieutenant general to lie to the FBI?

Dec. 12:

Cohen’s Big Day in Court

Will Michael Cohen, Trump’s former fixer and lawyer, be sentenced Wednesday to years in prison?

New York federal prosecutors recommended a sentence of at least three-and-a-half years for Cohen because his financial and campaign-finance crimes showed a “pattern of deception that permeated his professional life.” Those prosecutors rejected his request for no jail time as unacceptable because he wasn’t a cooperating witness.

As part of Mueller’s investigation, Cohen pleaded guilty to lying to Congress about Trump’s business plans in Russia. The special counsel said Cohen revealed plenty about Trump’s business plans in Moscow during his seven debriefings, and he deserves credit for that.

The Cohen sentencing could be the week’s most dramatic event. In addition to learning his sentence, Cohen could express what motivated him, direct comments at the president, or even reveal new details of his work on behalf of Trump.

Dec. 13:

Butina Hearing May Yield More on Russian Influence

Will Butina, who’s accused of acting as an unregistered Russian agent, hand Mueller more information on Russian interference or keep her mouth shut? That will become clearer Thursday morning when she appears in court, where she is expected to plead guilty. (The hearing, first set for Dec. 12, was later pushed back by a day.)

Butina, the 30-year-old Russian gun-rights activist, ingratiated herself with leaders of the National Rifle Association and the Republican Party even as she was a graduate student at American University.

Her Russian mentor was Alexander Torshin, a senior government official with alleged criminal ties, who sought connections to U.S. political leaders and organizations, the FBI charged.

Before the 2016 election, Butina emerged as a kind of gadfly, and she asked candidate Trump at a Las Vegas forum whether he’d improve U.S.-Russia relations if he was elected. Trump said he would. A guilty plea by Butina would raise several questions:

• Will she cooperate with the Justice Department?
• What prompted several NRA leaders to visit Moscow in late 2015 as guests of Butina and her gun-rights group?
• What more can she say about Russian efforts to influence the 2016 U.S. election?
• If she doesn’t cooperate, will she return to Russia in a prisoner exchange, as 10 other “sleeper agents” did after pleading guilty in 2010?

Dec. 14:

Who Is the Mystery Witness in Washington?

Courtroom watchers have scrutinized redacted passages of Mueller’s filings for clues about his probe. That goes double for a case quickly working through Washington courts in which every document has been filed under seal. The titles to those filings suggest a battle between prosecutors and a witness who is resisting a subpoena to appear in front of a grand jury. Politico has reported that the matter is related to the Mueller investigation, sparking speculation that the subpoena’s recipient someone close to Trump.

On Friday, a three-judge panel in a federal appeals court in Washington will hear arguments involving the subpoena -- which could lead to an order to appear that could be appealed again. The developments likely won’t be made public, as the courtroom will be sealed. But reporters on site will surely be trying to identify lawyers or others who may offer clues as to the would-be witness’s identity.

--With assistance from David Kocieniewski and Greg Farrell.

To contact the reporters on this story: David Voreacos in New York at dvoreacos@bloomberg.net;Andrew Harris in Washington at aharris16@bloomberg.net;Neil Weinberg in New York at nweinberg2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeffrey D Grocott at jgrocott2@bloomberg.net, Elizabeth Wollman, Peter Blumberg

©2018 Bloomberg L.P.