Exit Poll 2022: BJP Seen Winning U.P. And Uttarakhand Again, AAP March Into Punjab

Voting has concluded in the seventh and final phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh – bringing to a close a month-long election exercise which saw assembly elections held in U.P., Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa.

The counting of these votes will be done on March 10, but we now have the findings from exit poll surveys carried out in these five states.

The top headline from these surveys is that the Bharatiya Janata Party appears set to retain power in U.P. with a clear majority and emerge as the single-largest party near the halfway mark in Uttarakhand as well as Manipur. In Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party is being projected to win its first election outside Delhi. Goa could see another hung assembly with the BJP and Indian National Congress in a close contest.

Of the 403 assembly constituencies in U.P, the Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya polls have the highest projection for the BJP – pegging it to nearly repeat its 2017 landslide with a tally around the 300 mark. Two other polls show the BJP getting closer to between 230 and 250 seats – lower than five years back – but still winning a majority. In all these, the Samajwadi Party is projected to come in a distant second place – between 71 seats in the lower end of one survey, to 165 at the higher end of another poll.

In the 70-member Uttarakhand assembly, most exit polls show the BJP either near the majority mark or past it. One exit poll for Uttarakhand—that of C-Voter—has projected the Congress ahead of the BJP and near the halfway point.

In Manipur, the Axis My India survey is projecting a majority for the BJP, while that of Jan Ki Baat and C-Voter polls show the incumbent emerging as the single-largest party. Here, keep in mind that the National People’s Party that is shown winning anywhere between 4 and 14 seats is part of the BJP-led North-East Democratic Alliance in other states.

The second big headline is from Punjab – where the power binary between the Congress and the Akali Dal that has lasted decades is all set to be broken with the Aam Aadmi Party’s first big success outside Delhi. The AAP is being projected as the runaway winner in most exit polls in Punjab, and is seen leaving the Congress, Akali-BSP alliance, and BJP-Punjab Lok Congress combine way behind.

Finally, we could have yet another hung assembly in Goa – with both the BJP as well as the Congress projected to fall short of the halfway mark in the 40-member assembly. Different exit polls show one camp or the other with their nose ahead in this state.

Remember, these are only exit poll findings, and we have to wait for the actual results on March 10. We’ve had the final results diverge from exit polls in the recent past, most notably in West Bengal last year. Stay tuned to BloombergQuint’s coverage as we get you all the action on Thursday.

The month-long assembly election process in Uttar Pradesh concludes on Monday, with voters in the seventh and final phase of polling casting their ballots in the eastern region of the state. Voting in the states of Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa took place in the intervening weeks after the exercise got underway in U.P. on Feb. 10. The poll results for the five states will be known on March 10, when the Election Commission of India counts the votes cast beginning 8:00 am on Thursday.

With voting over, research agencies and media houses release the findings of exit poll surveys carried out across the five states.

Catch all the live coverage of the exit poll data here, as it is released through the evening.

Punjab was the epicentre of the prolonged protests against the three farm laws that were introduced by the Government of India in mid-2020. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the repeal of these laws on the birth anniversary of Guru Nanak, the founder of Sikhism, the most-practised faith in Punjab.

Months before the elections, the Indian National Congress asked Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh to step down, following dissension within the state unit of the party. He was succeeded by Charanjit Singh Channi, who later remained the Congress' chief ministerial face as voters cast their ballot in February. Amarinder Singh left the Congress, launched his own party – the Punjab Lok Congress, and entered into an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party for the assembly polls.

Five years after contesting the 2017 elections, the Aam Aadmi Party is making a second attempt at power in Punjab. The party's Lok Sabha MP Bhagwant Mann is its chief ministerial candidate.

The Shiromani Akali Dal, which was among the BJP's longest-standing allies, had walked out of the NDA following disagreements over the farm laws. In alliance with Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party, the SAD is making a bid to return to power after governing the state between 2007 and 2017.

The Bharatiya Janata Party's bid to hold on to power in India's most-populous state comes as the Covid-19 pandemic enters its third year, and less than 12 months after the deadly Delta-variant wave swept through Uttar Pradesh in April-May 2021.

Soaring prices and joblessness have also been weighing on U.P. voters' minds, reports Bloomberg's Bibhudatta Pradhan. This election outcome could define the political priorities Prime Minister Narendra Modi choses to pursue for the remainder of his second term. Western Uttar Pradesh was among the regions that saw year-long protests to the Modi government's farm laws, before their repeal in November 2021.

While opinion polls in the lead-up to voting showed the BJP retaining power, they predicted a margin that could be much tighter than the landslide the BJP won in 2017. Five years ago, the National Democratic Alliance won 325 seats in the 403-member assembly, with the BJP notching up a record 312 wins, following which Yogi Adityanath was appointed chief minister.

Data analysis by The Quint's Aditya Menon illustrates the gulf that the BJP's challengers have to bridge to be in contention for power in Lucknow.

The build-up to the U.P. election was marked by a "rising tide of religious polarisation", wrote Bloomberg Opinion's Ruth Pollard. While concurring on the spike in hate speech, fellow Bloomberg columnist Mihir Sharma argued that the election result in U.P. would be determined by voters' assessment of their economic prospects.

The BJP's election manifesto released in February promised that if it returns to power in Uttar Pradesh state it will enact even tougher punishments for those found guilty of indulging in “love jihad” – a reference to an alleged conspiracy of Muslim men luring Hindu women into marriage for conversion.

The exit poll survey conducted by Axis My India for India Today is projecting a sweep for the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab. Of the state's 117 assembly constiutencies, this poll expects the AAP to win between 76 and 90 seats, suggesting that the incumbent Indian National Congress will come in at a distant second, giving it between 19 and 31 seats.

The Axis My India survey is making these projections on the basis of expecting the AAP to garner 41% of votes cast in Punjab. The exit poll is pegging the Congress vote share at 28%, the Akali Dal - BSP combine at 19%, and the BJP - Punjab Lok Congress alliance at 7%.

The Jan Ki Baat exit poll for India News is projecting a bit win for the Aam Aadmi Party as well. This survey too has the Aam Aadmi Party crossing the halfway-mark of 59 in the 117-member Punjab legislative assembly.

The CVoter survey for ABP News has the Aam Aadmi Party securing a vote share of 39%, the Congress at 27%, Akali Dal-BSP at 21%, and the BJP at 9%. That translates into a seat projection of 51-61 for AAP, 22-28 for the Congress, and 20-26 for the Akali-BSP alliance.

The Today's Chanakya poll for News24 has the highest projection for the Aam Aadmi party in surveys released so far. The AAP will touch the three-digit mark according to this projection, relegate the Congress to 10 seats, the SAD-BSP combine to 6, BJP and Amarinder Singh to a solitary seat.

The Jan Ki Baat - India News survey for Goa projects both the BJP as well as the Congress falling short of the majority mark in the 40-member assembly. The upper band of the range projected for both BJP and Congress in this poll is 19, one short of the halfway mark in the assembly.

The Axis My India poll for Goa is showing a photo finish race as well, with the Congress seen between 15 and 20 seats and the BJP getting 14-18.

The close nature of the race in Goa is reflected in the CVoter exit poll for ABP News as well. There too, both leading contenders are expected to fall a few seats short of majority, which would bring smaller parties into play, in a bid for government-formation.

Meanwhile, the CNX poll for India TV is projecting the BJP with a small lead. Notably, the upper-end of the range for the BJP in this poll is the one projection that shows any party getting to a majority in the 40-member house.

Surveys for Uttarakhand suggest the Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to retain power.

The Axis My India poll for India Today projects the BJP winning between 36 and 46 seats, the Congress lagging behind at 20-30 seats.

The Jan Ki Baat exit poll has the BJP winning between 32 and 41 seats in the 70-member assembly.

The Today's Chanakya survey for News24 projects a clear majority for the BJP, expecting the party to win 43 seats.

The CNX exit poll for India TV is projecting a BJP win in Uttarakhand as well, with a range of between 35 and 43 seats, and the Congress seen bagging between 24 and 32 seats.

While all these polls project the Congress improving its 2017 performance, they show the party still falling short of the majority. The one poll projecting the Congress leading in Uttarakhand is the CVoter survey, which has the INC around around the halfway mark of 35, with the BJP a notch lower.

In India's most populous state of Uttar Pradesh, the Axis My India poll is predicting a second consecutive landslide win for the BJP and its allies. This survey expects the NDA to get between 288 and 326 seats in the 403-member assembly. In 2017, the NDA had won 325 seats.

The Today's Chanakya exit poll for News24 too is forecasting a big win for the the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in Lucknow. This survey has projected the NDA winning just short of 300 seats, the Samajwadi Party and its allies just about crossing the 100 mark, and the BSP dropping all the way down to 2 seats.

The Jan Ki Baat exit poll for India News has the BJP+ grouping winning between 222 and 260 seats. Were that outcome to play out as results come in on Thursday March 10, the NDA would be past the majority mark in the 403-member assembly, but lower than its 2017 ltally.

The CVoter survey for ABP News is projecting a somewhat closer contest in Uttar Pradesh but a win for the BJP nevertheless. This poll has the Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies winning between 228 and 244 seats, well past the majority mark, with the SP-led alliance in a distant second place around 140 seats.

In Manipur, the BJP is shown emerging with a clear lead. One poll shows the BJP comfortably winning with a majority, while some others are indicating a hung assembly with the BJP possibly emerging as the single-largest party.

The Axis My India poll projects a clear BJP win, leaving all other contenders far behind.

The CVoter survey shows BJP winning between 23 and 27 seats, the Congress between 12 and 16, The National People's Party that is part of the BJP-aligned North-East Democratic Alliance could win 10-14 seats as per this survey.

The Jan Ki Baat poll projects the BJP ahead as well, but again possibly needing the support of the NPP to form the government, if these trends play out as results are declared on March 10.