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Europe’s Virus Hot Spots Exit Lockdown as Experts Urge Caution

Europe’s Virus Hot Spots Exit Lockdown as Experts Urge Caution

(Bloomberg) --

Europe’s most virus-stricken countries are preparing to further ease lockdown measures that helped trigger the biggest economic downturn since World War II, even as scientists warned against moving too quickly.

As death tolls stabilize in some countries such as Italy, new Covid-19 cases continue to rise steadily elsewhere, particularly in the U.K. Still, governments are under pressure to let shops, factories and services reopen as the European Commission predicts the virus will wipe out 7.7% of the economy this year.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson laid out the timetable last week as his government struggles to overcome criticism of his top adviser, Dominic Cummings, for flouting lockdown rules. It’s also trying to provide hope for businesses and millions of laid-off and furloughed workers.

“We’ll have to take further restrictive measures if we find any uptick in the virus,” U.K. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said in a BBC interview Sunday. “We’re taking very cautious steps.” But Raab added, “we can’t just stay in lockdown forever.”

The U.K. will allow some schools, outdoor markets and car showrooms to open their doors on Monday under social-distancing guidelines, along with some competitive sports, including horse racing. From Monday more than 2 million people in England who face a higher risk from the virus and couldn’t leave their homes during the lockdown will be allowed outside.

Suffering Businesses

The measures should help bring much-needed traffic to retailers following May’s plunge in sales. According to the Confederation of British Industry, half of the companies laid off staff, and as many as four-fifths of reported cashflow difficulties.

All other non-essential shops, including those selling clothes, furniture, books, and electronics, are expected to be able to reopen from June 15. Premier League soccer may also resume matches two days later.

As the U.K. prepared to ease, some of the government’s top scientific advisers warned of moving too swiftly in a country where the virus has killed almost 40,000 people, second globally only to the U.S.

“Unlocking too fast carries a great risk that all the good work that’s been put in by everyone to try to reduce transmission may be lost,” Professor Peter Openshaw, scientific adviser to the government, said on BBC.

Italians at Odds

Italy, with the world’s third-highest death toll, is also moving with caution after protests supporting the lifting of restrictions erupted in Rome and Milan over the weekend.

Data on the spread of the virus is improving and the country can go ahead with opening its borders and lifting a ban on inter-regional travel within the nation on June 3, Health Minister Roberto Speranza told newswire Ansa.

“Italy has been able to get the virus under control,” Silvio Brusaferro, head of the ISS public health institute, told daily la Repubblica. “Monitoring allows us to pinpoint any signs of higher virus circulation and take measures accordingly.”

Still, Rome and regional governments have been at loggerheads over Lombardy, Italy’s richest, most populous region located around Milan. The epicenter of one of Europe’s worst virus outbreaks, Lombardy still has the highest ratio of new cases per capita.

The governors of the Campania region, which includes Naples, and of the island of Sardinia, threatened to close their borders to people coming from areas with high contagion levels. More than 33,000 people have died of Covid-19 in Italy since the start of the pandemic.

Meanwhile, far-right groups on May 30 organized a “March on Rome,” echoing the name of a rally that led to dictator Benito Mussolini’s rise to power in the 1920s. After marchers tried to upend an armored police car, officers dispersed the crowd with pepper spray. In Milan, a separate group of demonstrators calling themselves “orange vests” demanded an end to the lockdown, chanting “the virus doesn’t exist.”

“It is an act of irresponsibility in a city like Milan that is trying so hard to get out of the difficult situation it is in,” Milan mayor Beppe Sala said.

The lockdowns have slammed Italy’s economy, which shrank 5.3% in the first quarter and Bloomberg Economics expects the full-year slump to be 13%. The government has passed two stimulus packages worth a total 75 billion euros to help support companies and workers affected by the lockdown.

Sex, the City

Elsewhere, Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, is only beginning to ease restrictions but is planning on holding the world’s largest book fair in October under a strict hygienic regime.

Greece will allow visitors from more nations to visit the country from June 15, the Foreign Ministry said Saturday. In the Netherlands, where the number of reported new cases has slowed to levels last seen in March, bars and restaurants can reopen Monday under social-distancing guidelines.

Europe’s Virus Hot Spots Exit Lockdown as Experts Urge Caution

Switzerland, which slowed its Covid-19 infection rate while avoiding the strict clampdowns in neighboring Italy and France, decided that sex workers can soon get back to business on June 6 along with cinemas, nightclubs and public pools.

There are also signs of life in the City of London, Europe’s biggest financial hub. With only one in four office workers relishing returning full-time, according to a poll this month by YouGov for Okta Inc., bringing people back is complicated.

HSBC Holdings Plc and UBS Group AG, for instance, don’t plan to ask most employees to return for the foreseeable future; likewise for Deutsche Bank AG’s asset-management business. Dean Proctor, chief executive officer of Seven Investment Management LLP, says he’d like to bring back 10% to 25% of his 225-person staff in early June.

“We have to shift people from thinking about survival to thinking about how we thrive,” Proctor said.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.