Erdogan’s Rivals Face New Barrier to Entering Turkish Parliament
Erdogan’s Rivals Face New Barrier to Entering Turkish Parliament
(Bloomberg) --
Turkey is weighing changes to electoral law that could make it harder for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rivals, including former members of his party who’ve formed their own political movements, to enter parliament.
An internal commission has been set up by Erdogan’s ruling AKP to discuss possible changes to electoral law for the next few months, after which the party would take its proposal to its junior coalition partner, the nationalist MHP. Combined, the two have enough votes to modify electoral laws on their own.
Among changes under consideration is a minimum threshold of the national vote to win seats in the legislature, according to a party official with direct knowledge of the study. The threshold could be as high as 7% of the national tally, the person said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are internal. The new rule wouldn’t allow parties to team up in coalitions, as they currently do, to cross the threshold.
Critics argue the changes under consideration are mainly aimed at parties established by former AKP Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and former AKP economy czar Ali Babacan, both of whom have split off and started rival parties. The AKP denies having such motives.
Dropping Popularity
Support for the new opposition movements -- both founded a few months ago -- is estimated to be in low single digits. But even that could represent a risk for Erdogan, who found in last year’s municipal elections that his voting bloc and that of his opponents are roughly equal in size. Recent opinion surveys by Konda and MetroPOLL have found the ruling party’s popularity dropped further since then, and may now be at its lowest during the nearly two decades it’s been in power.
Babacan, who presided over Turkey’s economy during the first decade of AKP rule, told Turkish Fox TV last week that changes to laws on elections or political parties “are aimed at hurting us.” But efforts to remain in power by electioneering will prove to be futile, he said.
Another option being considered by AKP is to bar lawmakers from switching parties. Such a change would keep Babacan or Davutoglu from taking part in a possible snap vote by transferring lawmakers and skirting other eligibility criteria.
Naci Bostanci, AKP’s parliamentary whip, potinted to similar bans in place in some European countries. If the ruling party was to propose any changes to electoral law, it wouldn’t be aimed against any specific opposition party, he told Bloomberg.
A spokesman for Davutoglu’s GP party said the changes wouldn’t prevent it from running in any snap vote. Davutoglu’s team will likely meet the technical requirements by the end of this year, making it unnecessary for the party to try to transfer lawmakers, he said.
The ruling party suffered its most stinging electoral defeats last year, when it lost the mayorships of major cities including Istanbul and Ankara to an alliance of secularist and nationalist opposition parties after 25 years of uninterrupted rule. Both Davutoglu and Babacan are considered center-right in Turkey’s political spectrum, and their appeals are aimed at Erdogan’s conservative voter base.
The next presidential and general elections are scheduled to take place in 2023.
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