Erdogan Plots an Overhaul of Political Realm as Challenges Mount
Erdogan Plots an Overhaul of Political Realm as Challenges Mount
(Bloomberg) -- Almost two decades into President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rule, he sees rivals running Turkey’s most important cities and ex-allies who helped build his political empire on the verge of becoming opponents.
It’s time for a rethink. Over the next year or so, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party is planning a “grand congress” to rejuvenate decision-making by electing younger officials and women to bodies from the grassroots to the top echelons of the organization.
The AK Party, as it’s known by its Turkish acronym, will “refresh itself and its energy,” Erdogan has said, acknowledging the need to learn lessons from stinging defeats in citywide elections in Istanbul and Ankara this year. The party will “strengthen its ranks with new friends and women” to reflect changes in society, said its deputy chairman, Erkan Kandemir.
Erdogan and his party remained popular in Turkey’s vast hinterland. And since those ballot box losses, the 65-year-old leader has consolidated backing among nationalist Turks with an offensive against a U.S.-backed Kurdish militia in northern Syria that Ankara considers a foe. Erdogan has garnered additional support by rejecting American pressure to abandon Turkey’s purchase of a Russian missile-defense system.
Young Pretender
The economy has so far escaped a long-lasting recession as fears of a military collision with pro-government forces in Syria, or severe U.S. sanctions over the deal with Moscow, haven’t materialized. And Erdogan’s near one-man presidential rule isn’t scheduled to be tested at the ballot box until 2023.
But it’s increasingly clear that the AK Party -- and an increasingly autocratic Erdogan since he shifted Turkey to an executive presidency with sweeping powers -- are losing touch with two important constituencies: urban women and younger Turks angered by unemployment among their cohort hovering around historical peaks.
The beneficiaries have included the Iyi Party led by Meral Aksener, one of Turkey’s leading female politicians, and Ekrem Imamoglu, 49, who won the mayorship of Istanbul in a stinging defeat for the president in June, and now enjoys a growing profile with his pledges to rejuvenate the city.
Former economy czar Ali Babacan and ex-Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, both sidelined by Erdogan, are also likely to appeal to younger voters, who are estimated to make up a third of the electorate. The two former AK Party stalwarts will probably launch their own parties by the end of this year.
The governing party needs to show voters that the new presidential system it introduced is actually a functional one before it can push for elections again, according to Hilmi Dasdemir, the general manager of Ankara-based polling company Optimar.
“While Ekrem Imamoglu is the strongest potential rival, he needs to deliver his promises to sustain his popularity,” Dasdemir said. That flux means Turks are likely to get a break from the torrent of recent elections as parties, including Imamoglu’s Republican People’s Party, focus on cementing support.
Erdogan’s government is 6% more popular than after June’s redo election in Istanbul and is now backed by 56.7% of respondents, said Murat Gezici, head of the Gezici polling company. Optimar puts Erdogan’s own approval rate at 53.6%, while the share of those supporting the creation of a new political party had slumped to 12.5% from 34% a year ago.
That’s bad news for Babacan and Davutoglu, whose camps are already complaining of intimidation tactics by Erdogan’s party.
Landlords have come under pressure not to rent their buildings to the aspiring parties, according to two people, one from each group, who asked not to be named. The people said the government’s tight control of the media meant new parties were loath to name heavyweight members early on for fear of a prolonged assault on their characters in newspapers and on TV.
They face other hurdles, too: the lack of clear support by Babacan or Davutoglu for the Syria operation risks backfiring amid heightened national sentiment, according to pollsters Gezici and Optimar.
Davutoglu served as premier and chairman of the AK Party from 2014 to 2016, while Babacan, who presided over the boom that tripled the size of Turkey’s economy following the financial crisis of 2001, severed ties with the party in July. Both were alarmed by Erdogan’s growing dominance over the state but have have no plans to join forces, the people said.
Erdogan has urged solidarity to ward off attempts to wrest power from his party as it regroups. “If we keep our brotherhood strong, then seeds of unrest can’t grow,” he said. “Those who wanted to harm the AK Party for their own political ambitions and aspirations have always been disappointed.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Firat Kozok in Ankara at fkozok@bloomberg.net;Selcan Hacaoglu in Ankara at shacaoglu@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Onur Ant at oant@bloomberg.net, ;Riad Hamade at rhamade@bloomberg.net, Mark Williams, Paul Abelsky
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