Emerging-Market Bulls Get Boost as Currencies Take Cue From Oil
Currency correlation with crude oil climbs to two-year high.
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market bulls have one thing going in their favor -- currencies are taking their cue from oil again after the Fed-inspired October selloff and November’s rally on easing trade tensions.
The rolling 40-day correlation of MSCI’s developing-nation currency gauge and crude oil climbed to a two-year high this week. Then Saudi Arabia, Russia and the rest of the OPEC+ coalition delivered a bigger-than-expected production cut Friday, sending crude up by as much as 5.3 percent. Currencies across emerging markets immediately rallied, led by oil-producer Colombia.
With some analysts forecasting a bottoming in oil prices, the renewed link could signal more sustained gains for developing-nation assets.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Bartenstein in New York at bbartenstei3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Rita Nazareth at rnazareth@bloomberg.net, Philip Sanders
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