Italy’s New Coalition Faces Hurdle in Five Star Direct Democracy

(Bloomberg) -- Italy on Tuesday faces one more hurdle in its bid to set up a government and avoid new elections: a vote by as few as 50,000 online activists.

Members of the Five Star Movement, one of the parties set to support Giuseppe Conte’s second bid to be prime minister, vote Tuesday on an alliance with the Democrats -- their sworn enemies until a few weeks ago.

“Do you agree with the Five Star Movement setting up a government, led by Giuseppe Conte, with the Democratic Party?,” registered users will be asked from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. Measures put before party members generally pass.

The anti-establishment Five Star, the biggest party in parliament, has long been committed to direct democracy and regularly consults members on an online platform called Rousseau.

The platform has over 115,000 voting members, although typically only about half take part in ballots. It’s run by a non-profit organization led by Davide Casaleggio, whose father founded Five Star along with comedian Beppe Grillo.

Direct democracy has rankled mainstream politics in Europe, from the Greek bailout to Brexit, though it’s not unusual for party members to vote on proposed alliances: Germany’s Socialists did it to approve the latest tie-up with Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats.

Populist Coalition

Five Star has been here before. In 2018, members were asked to weigh in on the formation of a populist coalition between the party and Matteo Salvini’s rightist League. Party leaders endorsed the plan and the rank and file voted along with them.

In a controversial decision, some 52,000 Five Star activists voted to approve immunity from prosecution for Salvini ahead of a parliamentary vote.

Almost half of Five Star supporters back a government with the Democrats, or PD, according to a survey published by Corriere della Sera. Less than a third want to go back to the alliance with the League, and only 13% favor snap elections.

Still, lieutenants close to the three protagonists in the coalition talks -- Conte, Five Star and the Democrats -- are looking anxiously toward the online vote, according to officials from the two parties, who asked not to be named discussing confidential matters.

Five Star is unsure what it will do if activists vote “no” or if the result is positive but close, the Five Star official said. The result is expected to be made public at about 6:30 p.m., the official said.

The party’s internal soundings show support for the new alliance has grown over the past week, the official added. President Sergio Mattarella would see a “no” as a definitive signal the coalition can’t go ahead, daily la Repubblica reported Tuesday.

Behind Vote

A senior Democrat official expressed confidence that the measure will be approved, but noted that Di Maio has not fully thrown his weight behind a “yes” vote.

To add more uncertainty, critics claim the platform isn’t secure. After a string of hacking incidents, Italy’s data protection authority in April fined Rousseau for failing to safeguard members’ data.

Rousseau is secure and tightly monitored, Valerio Tacchini, the notary who will certify Tuesday’s ballot, told Corriere della Sera, adding that “it’s a bit like the voting on X-Factor.”

Five Star said Aug. 31 that Rousseau is on a new, state-of-the-art platform where results cannot be manipulated.

--With assistance from Alessandro Speciale.

To contact the reporters on this story: Marco Bertacche in Milan at mbertacche@bloomberg.net;John Follain in Rome at jfollain2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Kingdon at ckingdon@bloomberg.net, Jerrold Colten, Richard Bravo

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