Democrats’ Path Looks Mixed in Poll of 3 States Won by Trump

(Bloomberg) -- A poll released Thursday shows it’s win, lose and draw for Democrats in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, all of which narrowly went for Donald Trump in 2016.

In the Quinnipiac University Poll, Trump bests six top Democrats by a 7- to 11-point margin in head-to-head matchups in Wisconsin. But the results were flipped in Pennsylvania, where all of the Democrats beat Trump by 6 to 8 percentage points.

But Michigan was more muddled, with Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar essentially tied with Trump, and Sanders, Bloomberg and Biden with leads just barely outside the margin of error.

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In Wisconsin, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders fare the best, losing to Trump 49%-42%, and 50%-43%, respectively. Pete Buttigieg and Michael Bloomberg both lose 49%-41%. And Trump beats Elizabeth Warren 51%-41% and Amy Klobuchar 50%-39%.

“These Wisconsin numbers are a red warning sign for Democrats that rebuilding the ‘blue wall’ in 2020 may not be so easy,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow. “But it’s a long way to November.”

Trump appears to be buoyed by a strong economy. Broad majorities in all three states said they were better off in their personal financial situation than in 2016, that their state’s economy was excellent or good and that they approved of Trump’s handling of the economy as president.

But not all voters agreed that the economy was the most important thing in the upcoming election.

Roughly a third of voters in each state said the economy was the top issue, roughly a fourth said health care and about 12% said climate change.

“Voters citing the economy as the number one issue are voting overwhelmingly for President Trump,” added Snow. “But the exact opposite is true for voters who say health care or climate change are their top issues, who are voting overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates.”

A majority of voters in Wisconsin said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, while majorities in Pennsylvania and Michigan viewed him unfavorably.

The Democratic candidates were mostly viewed negatively by voters in all three states, although significant numbers said they had not heard enough about Klobuchar, Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Warren to know.

The surveys of 823 self-identified registered voters in Wisconsin, 845 in Michigan and 849 in Pennsylvania had margins of error of 3.4 percentage points.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ryan Teague Beckwith in Washington, D.C. at rbeckwith3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Wendy Benjaminson at wbenjaminson@bloomberg.net, Magan Crane, Max Berley

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