Democrats Challenging GOP Senators Rack Up 2020 Fundraising Edge

(Bloomberg) -- Democratic challengers outpaced incumbent Republican U.S. senators’ first-quarter fund-raising in almost all the states most likely to decide control of the chamber ahead of elections marked with uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic.

That includes an eye-popping $11 million in receipts for astronaut Mark Kelly in Arizona, easily topping appointed Senator Martha McSally’s $6.4 million; Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon’s $7.1 million, nearly tripling the $2.4 million raised by four-term Senator Susan Collins; and in North Carolina, Cal Cunningham’s $4.4 million, double the $2.1 million raised by incumbent Thom Tillis.

In Montana, Governor Steve Bullock entered the race on March 9 and raised $3.3 million in three weeks as he eyes the seat now held by Republican Senator Steve Daines. Daines brought in just $1.3 million.

Analysts rate the fight for Senate control in November close to a toss-up. With Republicans now in control 53-47, Democrats need a net pickup of three seats to achieve a 50-50 split. That would give them control of the chamber if they also win the White House, as the vice president gets the tie-breaking vote.

Democratic leadership-endorsed candidates “continued to cement themselves as the front-runners,” in large part due to small-dollar, grassroots giving, said Stewart Boss, national press secretary for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Virus Lockdowns are Reshaping Fight for Senate Control

Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the progressive leanings of Democratic candidates will blunt the party’s drive to retake the chamber.

“Money can’t erase their embrace of a socialist agenda deeply unpopular with mainstream voters,” Hunt said.

Still, the coronavirus crisis has limited campaigning and may affect further fund-raising. Races may shift, depending on how long the economic downturn lasts and how many deaths there are.

In addition, despite many Democrats’ first-quarter fund-raising edge, most of the endangered incumbent Republicans hold substantial leads in cash on hand.

Colorado’s Cory Gardner is perhaps the Senate Republican most at risk this year. Like Collins, he’s running in a state that gave its vote to 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. Gardner’s leading challenger, former Governor John Hickenlooper, raised $4.1 million, topping Gardner’s $2.5 million haul. But Gardner has nearly double the war chest, with $9.6 million to Hickenlooper’s $4.9 million in the bank.

Signs of Trouble

In North Carolina, Tillis has a substantial lead in cash on hand, with $6.5 million to $3 million for Cunningham, who beat back a primary challenge backed in part by Republican groups looking to split Democrats and drain Democratic resources.

And Montana’s Daines has $5.6 million left to spend, while Bullock has $3.2 million in cash on hand.

But in a sign of trouble in Maine, four-term incumbent Collins’ cash-on-hand lead has dwindled. She has $5.6 million in the bank to Gideon’s $4.6 million, a gap that shrank considerably in the past three months as Collins spent heavily.

A Critical Insights poll published this week in the Bangor Daily News had Collins’ approval rating at just 37% against 42% last fall, a once-unfathomable number for a senator who scored approval ratings approximately twice as high in the era before Donald Trump burst onto the political scene in 2015.

Collins has had to walk an awkward line between critiquing Trump -- in a state that has voted for Democrats for president in every election since 1988 -- while also trying to appeal to Trump fans whose votes she’ll need to win.

Giffords’ Husband

There are some other dark spots for Republicans.

In Arizona, McSally was appointed in December 2018 to the seat previously held by the late John McCain, after she lost to Senator Kyrsten Sinema in 2018. Democrats are intent on beating McSally again in a state that is also a potential tipping point in the presidential vote.

McSally’s fund-raising has trailed Kelly in quarter after quarter, with Kelly ending the first quarter with $19.7 million on hand to $10.3 million for McSally. Kelly is married to former Democratic Representative Gabby Giffords, who was shot and suffered a brain injury in an attempted 2011 assassination in her Congressional district.

Meanwhile, the Democratic senator seen as most vulnerable -- Doug Jones in deep-red Alabama -- vastly out-raised the two Republicans vying in a GOP primary to challenge him. Jones brought in a whopping $4.2 million in the quarter ending March 31.

Targeting McConnell

Former GOP senator and U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions raised $1.2 million for his contest against former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, who brought in $971,000. The two face off in a GOP primary that was moved to July 14 from March 31 due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Two red states that have also generated a lot of Democratic cash are Kentucky, where Amy McGrath raised $12.9 million to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s $7.5 million, and South Carolina, where Trump confidant Senator Lindsey Graham was outraised by Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, $7.4 million to $5.7 million.

McConnell had $15 million on hand to McGrath’s $14.8 million, while Graham had $12.8 million cash on hand to $8 million for Harrison.

Still, there were some bright spots for Republicans in the first quarter dash for campaign cash.

Most notably, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters in Michigan was out-raised by Republican challenger John James, $4.6 million to $4.1 million, while Peters held a tiny $8.8 million to $8.6 million lead in cash on hand. Trump narrowly won Michigan in 2016, and the state will be fiercely contested again in the fall presidential race.

Ernst in Iowa

In Iowa, GOP Senator Joni Ernst raised $2.7 million in the third quarter and had $6.5 million left to spend. Her leading Democratic challenger, businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, raised $2.3 million and had $3.8 million cash on hand.

In Georgia, the deep pockets of incumbent GOP Senator Kelly Loeffler are giving her a substantial financing edge as she come under increasing criticism for share sales and purchases of million of dollars worth of stocks amid the coronavirus outbreak.

Loeffler, whose husband is chief executive of the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, gave a $5 million personal loan to her campaign in the first quarter. That brought her total receipts to $6.2 million for the quarter, and she has $6.1 million left to spend.

Her leading Republican competitor, U.S. Representative Doug Collins, raised $2.5 million but that included a $1.65 million transfer from his House campaign coffers. He had $2.2 million left to spend.

Raphael Warnock, an Atlanta pastor endorsed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee after entering the contest in late January, raised $1.5 million in donations, more than Loeffler and Collins. But he had just $1.2 million left to spend.

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