Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Is Winning the U.K. Election Digital War

(Bloomberg) -- With three weeks to go, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party is winning the crucial digital campaign in the U.K.’s general election, reaching larger online audiences than Boris Johnson.

While this is potentially good news for Labour, there are reasons for the Conservatives to be optimistic, too. Their social media operation is working more effectively than Theresa May’s did in 2017.

The so-called cyber war is a crucial part of modern election campaigning. It allows parties to target adverts at undecided voters and helps politicians to rally their activists and supporters. A precision targeting operation on Facebook helped David Cameron win an unexpected majority in 2015. Two years later, Labour’s better-than-expected performance at the 2017 vote was attributed partly to the fact that Corbyn won the online battle with May.

U.K. voters are going to the polls on Dec. 12 in an election Johnson triggered after failing to persuade Parliament to back his Brexit strategy. Digital campaigning augments the traditional “air war” of media messages, and the “ground war” of party activists knocking on doors in their local districts.

The social media campaign is likely to be even more influential this time, as campaigners struggle to make contact with voters who are reluctant to open their doors on dark winter evenings.

On Facebook advertising, which can be intensively targeted at specific types of voter in swing seats, the two main parties have spent similar amounts over the last month. The pro-EU Liberal Democrats have spent most -- 218,435 pounds ($280,514) -- compared to 203,149 pounds for Labour and 162,548 pounds for the Conservatives, according to data from the Facebook Ad Library.

Long Reach

The clearest difference between the parties is on how far their messages are spread by people sharing content voluntarily -- known as “organic” reach. Labour currently leads on this across the three most important social media platforms: Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

Posts from the Facebook pages of Labour and Corbyn -- largely focused on issues such as the National Health Service and criticizing the government’s austerity program -- have been shared more than twice as many times as those from the Conservatives and from Johnson himself, according to data from CrowdTangle, a social media analytics tool owned by Facebook.

Labour and Corbyn have also garnered about 100% more views of their videos on Facebook and Twitter than the Tories, according to CrowdTangle and a Bloomberg analysis.

The challenge for Corbyn is turning this digital advantage into support in battleground electoral districts so he can win key seats, according to Matt Walsh, a senior lecturer and digital communication specialist at Cardiff University.

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“They’re hoping it goes beyond the hyper-engaged political activists and moves out to people who are less interested in politics,” Walsh said. “That’s the strategy that worked for Labour last time.”

Doing Better

While the Tories are behind, they are doing better than in 2017, Walsh said. In the month before the 2017 general election, posts from May’s Facebook page generated 530,000 ‘likes’, ’comments’ and ’shares’, according to CrowdTangle. Johnson’s Facebook page has received double that many interactions in the last 3 weeks alone. The following of the Conservatives’ official Facebook page has also grown 10% since the 2017 vote.

Conservatives have also started to match Labour by making professional-style videos that play on emotions and are more likely to be shared. A video of Johnson answering questions direct-to-camera in an informal style has attracted 4.6 million views on Twitter, more than any Twitter video produced by Labour or Corbyn during the campaign.

“In 2017 they were completely left standing by Labour, but now they’re catching up,” Walsh said. “They’re putting out clear and strident messages on Brexit to encourage engagement.”

Momentum Still Key

A key part of Labour’s digital operation is the activist group Momentum, a grassroots organization founded shortly after Corbyn won the party leadership four years ago.

As during the 2017 election, Momentum is amplifying Labour’s online message. Videos shared by its Facebook page have attracted double the number of views of those posted by the Conservatives since the campaign began. Momentum is also using an interactive campaign map to direct its supporters to their nearest target seat, so volunteers can concentrate efforts where they’re most needed.

Labour’s ability to integrate its online activities with its large supporter base is an advantage over the Tories, said Andrew Chadwick, a professor of political communication at Loughborough University.

“They’ve got more real humans knocking on doors, being passionate about Corbyn,” he said. “Those kinds of contacts are like gold.”

To be sure, Labour appears to be facing an uphill battle. Despite their online superiority in 2017, Corbyn’s party still won less seats than the Conservatives, and opinion polls put them 13 points behind this time.

Courting Controversy

One tactic the Conservatives appear to be deploying in this campaign is flirting with disinformation or misleading content -- either to persuade voters or to attract controversy and attention. Examples include:

• The Tories edited a video of a leading Labour politician to make it appear he was unable to answer a question on Brexit, when in fact he had. The outcry meant the video -- which focuses on the Conservatives’ narrative that Labour has no clear Brexit policy -- was viewed 1.1 million times on Twitter
• The Conservatives changed the name of their party press office Twitter account to “factcheckUK” during a TV debate between Johnson and Corbyn, drawing criticism they were misleading voters into thinking it was an impartial fact-check service
• Johnson’s party set up a website called “labourmanifesto.co.uk” and promoted it high in Google search results; it’s actually a Conservative critique of Corbyn’s plans

Partisan Groups Matter

Another digital force at the election is a host of well-followed, highly partisan but non-party-affiliated social media accounts. These produce election messaging and propaganda that isn’t directly attributed to any of the parties.

On Facebook, pro-Brexit pages such as Leave.EU and Get Britain Out, which have hundreds of thousands of supporters, have been sharing pro-Johnson content, while anti-Brexit pages like Best for Britain and Scientists for EU have been encouraging tactical voting to stop Brexit.

Some of the engagement on social media posts may be generated by bots, not real humans, a problem noted at recent elections. Both Facebook and Twitter have said they are clamping down on fake activity on their platforms.

In a sign of their influence, posts from four of the most popular pro-Brexit pages on Facebook, plus those of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, attracted more interactions in the form of “likes,” comments and “shares” than those of the Tories in the first two weeks of the campaign, data from CrowdTangle showed.

Yet anti-Brexit posts had a similar reach. Content from four of the most-followed pro-EU Facebook pages have drawn a combined 2 million interactions since the start of the campaign, compared to 1.9 million interactions for posts from four of the most-followed anti-Brexit pages.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joe Mayes in London at jmayes9@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Rebecca Penty at rpenty@bloomberg.net, Tim Ross, Stuart Biggs

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