Can Parliament Stop a No-Deal Brexit? This Is How It Will Try

(Bloomberg) --

They think they’ve got the votes, but do the British members of Parliament plotting to stop a prime minister taking the U.K. out of the European Union without a deal have the means?

Boris Johnson looks likely to succeed Theresa May as prime minister in late July, with a pledge to take Britain out of the EU, deal or no deal, “do or die” on Oct. 31. He’s refused to say what he’ll do if Parliament votes against that course, insisting it will back him.

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However there’s little evidence to support that idea. If anything, the arithmetic is likely to go the other way, as members of parliament who served in May’s government become rank-and-file lawmakers liberated to vote with their conscience. May herself has hinted she’ll join them.

But it’s all very well having a majority of MPs who oppose no-deal. The question is how that majority enforces its will if Johnson decides to ignore it. Here are the options on the table.

Cut Off Money

What? Former Attorney General Dominic Grieve has put down a series of amendments to what are called the “estimates” -- the parliamentary instruments that allocate money to different government departments. The amendments mean money will be withheld if there’s been a Brexit without parliamentary consent.

When? The vote will be at 7 p.m. on July 2.

Will it work? Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Ken Clarke is backing the move. But others may be reluctant to threaten cutting off money for schools and welfare. In any case, it doesn’t directly stop a no-deal Brexit, it just promises to make one even more unpleasant. It would also serve to show the strength of opposition to no-deal.

Change the Law

What? Compel the prime minister by law to seek and accept an extension to the U.K.’s EU membership. One option would be to do this by hijacking a piece of government legislation going through Parliament -- perhaps something designed to prepare for a hard exit. Alternatively, MPs could work with Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow to use an emergency debate to seize control of the parliamentary agenda.

Among the options is the idea of amending the EU Withdrawal Act 2019 which was passed earlier this year to force May to seek an extension. That could revive it for use on the new prime minister.

When? After Parliament returns from its summer recess on Sept. 3. Timing is restricted because of the expected three-week conference recess in the second half of September.

Will it work? There are the votes for it, but there’s a view that this worked last time because May didn’t want a cliff-edge Brexit, and so was happy to comply with Parliament. A more determined prime minister could go to the EU and ask for an extension while at the same time promising to use it to make business in Brussels impossible, with the goal of being refused.

End the Government

What? The nuclear option. Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn calls a vote of no confidence in the government. If that passes, it triggers a 14-day period in which other people can seek to form a government, or the existing government seeks to win support back. Ed Davey, running for the leadership of the Liberal Democrats, has suggested that a government of national unity could be formed under a centrist Labour MP who is not in Corbyn’s core team, with a mandate to call a second referendum. If no one succeeds in winning a confidence vote, a general election would be called.

When? This is tricky. The statutory campaigning period for an election is 25 working days. Combined with the 14-day confidence-negotiation period, that means that if MPs wanted to have the election before the Oct. 31 exit day, they’d have to have the no-confidence vote pretty much when Parliament returns on Sept. 3. So the motion would have to be proposed on the last day before summer recess, July 25 -- the day after the new prime minister takes office. That’s too soon for Tories, who will want to give the new leader a chance before trying to throw him overboard. Perhaps a brief extension could be sought from the EU to allow the election to take place, but that would need the prime minister’s cooperation.

Will it Work? There are Conservative MPs who talk about being willing to bring down their own government to stop a no-deal Brexit -- Clarke is one -- but action is harder than talk. The timing question might be the biggest problem. By the time it’s clear the prime minister is going for no-deal, a confidence vote might be too late.

Revenge

What? A prime minister might be able to ignore Parliament on Brexit, but they will have to govern afterwards. The threat to cut off money -- historically the way that Parliament reined in monarchs -- is an illustration of how strongly MPs feel. The prime minister, already without a majority, would be likely to see MPs defect from his party, potentially leading to an election, and certainly leaving him unable to pass any controversial measures. That would include Johnson’s plan for tax cuts for higher earners.

When? Nov. 1, and every day after that until the election.

Will it work? The threat of this is the reason why Johnson might back down, even if he wasn’t obliged to in law.

To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Emma Ross-Thomas

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