Brexit Bulletin: Wrap Up Warm, Britain

The Brexit deadline is 92 days away.

(Bloomberg) --

Today in Brexit: The winter election is on. Can a national poll solve Brexit in time for Christmas?

What’s happening? Britons will face a choice on Dec. 12: Stay warm indoors, perhaps with a nice cup of tea, or traipse to a polling station in midwinter to exercise their democratic right to vote. As Tim Ross and Robert Hutton report, it’s a critical vote that could finally settle the question of Brexit.

Boris Johnson got the election he wanted after a series of votes in the House of Commons on Tuesday, once opposition parties fell in behind the idea. (Here’s how the final tally played out.) The prime minister aims to use the poll, the U.K.’s third general election since 2015, to win a Parliamentary majority that will enable to him pass his plan to leave the European Union without undue drama. Meanwhile, the rest of us are braced for a month of Christmas-themed election puns in the country’s newspapers.

And yet all the party leaders are happy — which means someone is miscalculating. Boris Johnson wants to “get Brexit done” and then (in theory) move on to a domestic agenda; Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s slick campaign launch video barely mentioned the divorce; Jo Swinson of the Liberal Democrats deployed a gif to signal her enthusiasm; Brexit Party Leader Nigel Farage declared that “Brexit now has a chance to succeed.” His party has its eyes on Leave-voting seats in Labour’s heartlands, the Telegraph reports.

Johnson is ahead in the polls and yet it could all still go wrong, Hutton reports. Polls have been repeatedly inaccurate in recent years. Weariness with the Conservatives, who have governed since 2010, could drive voters elsewhere. And that’s before Brexit comes into the equation.

The fight over leaving the EU has blurred old party allegiances in Parliament and no doubt in the nation at large. But it’s fiendishly hard to say how that will play out at the ballot box. As a reminder, here’s how the 2017 election went for Theresa May.

Today’s Must-Reads

• As the British electoral system can easily produce perverse results, the situation has just grown more uncertain, John Authers writes for Bloomberg Opinion.
• Markets are betting on a Johnson election victory, but even more important are the dwindling chances of a Labour majority, Bloomberg Opinion’s Marcus Ashworth argues.
• There have been many points in the Brexit process when the U.K. needed an election — but this is not one of them, says the editorial board of the Financial Times.

Brexit in Brief

What Next for the Pound? | An election is unlikely to send the pound plunging, strategists say. Yet there is enough uncertainty around the result and the Brexit outcome that it also won’t prompt a huge rally, Charlotte Ryan and Anooja Debnath report. Sterling traded at $1.2867 early this morning.

Home Extension | The time it takes to sell a home in central London has soared to 20 weeks as lingering uncertainty surrounding Brexit scares off buyers, according to data from Zoopla Ltd. The waiting period far exceeds the national average of just over 12 weeks for an index of British cities in the third quarter, Bloomberg’s Lucca de Paoli reports.

Brexit Forecasting | Johnson’s deal would leave the U.K. economy 3.5% smaller every year, meaning policy makers at the Bank of England should start thinking about an interest-rate cut, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

More Delay | Dubai ports operator DP World Plc put its expansion plan in the U.K. on hold. “I have a deal to expand, but on hold until they decide,” Chairman Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem told Bloomberg TV in Riyadh. 

Moving On | Whatever the strength of the parties in the House of Commons after the election, many of the faces will be unfamiliar. Former leadership contenders Rory Stewart (a Conservative who now wants to be mayor of London) and Owen Smith (Labour) are the latest to confirm they won’t seek re-election.

Farewell, Brexit | Outgoing EU Council President Donald Tusk signed off yesterday by confirming the new departure deadline of Jan. 31 and asking the U.K., as he did six months ago, not to waste time. “I also want to say goodbye to you as my mission here is coming to an end,” he said. “I will keep my fingers crossed for you.”

Want to keep up with Brexit?

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Anne Swardson at aswardson@bloomberg.net, Leila Taha

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