Brexit Bulletin: Sneak Peek

Days to General Election: 7

(Bloomberg) --

What’s Happening? One of the key characters in Brexit’s next season is already cast. We’re waiting for his opposite number.

In politics, there are big personalities everywhere you look. That’s certainly true in the ongoing saga that is Brexit and British politics. With just a week to go until the U.K. votes in a crucial general election, Bloomberg reporters have taken a close look at two of the very biggest — in all senses of the word. 

As Tim Ross reports today, one of the key concerns for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s handlers and strategists is keeping their man on the straight and narrow during the electoral run-in. Johnson has a temper, and has in the past let it show. If they succeed, the U.K.’s most famous politician in decades will have a real shot at enduring power.

Across the water, the European Union has also revamped its top team. The new season of Brexit will begin without veteran cast members Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker. Negotiations supremo Michel Barnier is still around, but a vital new character with a forceful personality is set to make his debut: Ireland’s Phil Hogan, the new trade commissioner, who grew up a farmer’s son in rural Ireland.

Our Dublin bureau chief Dara Doyle charts the career of the man universally known as “Big Phil,” who has a reputation as a power broker who’ll seek out alliances, however unlikely, to cut a deal. If Johnson wins re-election and seeks a rapid free-trade deal with the EU, it will be Hogan who defends the EU’s interests.

Boris Johnson “seems to view himself as a modern day Churchill,” Hogan said in August, mocking the British leader’s pretension. If the opinion polls are right and the prime minister’s Conservative Party wins a governing majority, the potential for a heavyweight clash between these two could be a highlight of the next phase of Brexit.

Today’s Must-Reads

• Johnson today laid out plans for his first 100 days in office and insists he will “get Brexit done” by Jan. 31. Catch up on all the day’s events here.
• The U.K.’s antiquated electoral system is more than capable of delivering a big move in currency markets in the early hours of next Friday morning, John Authers writes for Bloomberg Opinion.
• Smartphone content is warping and distorting the way people interact with the general election campaign, the Guardian’s Jim Waterson found by observing how voters use their devices.

Brexit in Brief

Must-Listen | Bloomberg’s Stephanie Flanders was joined by a stellar line-up — Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Bronwen Maddox of the Institute for Government and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe — to debate what will happen to the U.K. and its economy after next week’s election.

Fear of Heights | The higher the pound rises, the more nervous options traders become, Bloomberg’s Vassilis Karamanis reports today. Even as sterling enjoys its longest winning streak since June, a barometer of sentiment and positioning shows options traders are the most bearish on the pound in eight months.

Business View | U.K. firms are also cautious on the outlook. In a Bank of England survey released today, just 46% said they think the country will leave the EU with a deal next year.

Leave Means Leave | Three Brexit Party MEPs today quit Nigel Farage’s party and threw their backing behind Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. Lucy Harris, Annunziata Rees-Mogg and Lance Forman all said the Brexit Party’s participation in the election risks splitting the Leave vote and endangering the U.K.’s departure from the EU. 

Heavy Weather | In Britain, it’s very often all about the weather. And now we’re a week away from the election, the reality of a December vote is starting to hit home. Frost and ice is forecast for election day, and plans are being made to help get voters to the polls — with the Conservatives said to be particularly worried that older, pro-Tory voters might be put off, BuzzFeed News reports. 

Want to keep up with Brexit?

You can follow us @Brexit on Twitter, and listen to Bloomberg Westminster every weekday.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Goodman at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.