Brexit Bulletin: Who Wins from Winter?
Brexit Bulletin: Who Wins from Winter?
Days to Brexit deadline: 78
(Bloomberg) --
Today in Brexit: When the history of Brexit is written, expect a chapter on one unlikely factor: the great British winter.
What’s happening? With Britain bracing for its most important general election in a generation, set to determine the fate of Brexit, politicians are having to grapple with a very practical problem: campaigning while it’s cold, wet and dark.
It’s the first December election in almost a century, and there are various implications for campaigning and potential turnout, write Bloomberg’s Alex Morales and Greg Ritchie. Transport could be snarled up by snow, preventing voters from reaching the polls. Some may have taken an early winter holiday and others could be out celebrating at office parties until after polling booths close at 10 p.m.
These factors are likely to benefit the Conservatives, according to Philip Cowley, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. Cold weather could limit Labour’s campaigning advantage from its mass membership, he wrote last month in a Spectator blog. Postal votes might also have a greater sway, which tend to come from older and disproportionately Tory voters.
Extreme conditions are already playing a role in this election. Prime Minister Boris Johnson had a tricky day on the campaign trail Wednesday, meeting flood victims who weren’t too pleased to see him in northern England. “What more can we do?” he asked one woman. “It’s a little bit too late now,” she replied.
Johnson also suffered a setback as Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party continued to refuse to stand down candidates in Labour-held target seats, risking splitting the pro-Brexit vote. Though at the same time, a grand remain-supporting alliance between the pro-European Union Liberal Democrats and Labour has also not materialized, so tactical voting will be important. It’s shaping to be the election of cold and confusion.
Today’s Must-Reads
- Elon Musk said Brexit is the reason why the U.K. missed out on being a location for a Tesla factory.
- In an interview with the Guardian, Unite’s Len McCluskey, Jeremy Corbyn’s key union backer, urged the Labour leader to take a tough line on free movement of workers to win the election.
- The U.K. election will still not settle the big questions of Brexit, Philip Stephens writes in the Financial Times.
Brexit in Brief
Free Trade 2020 | U.K. business minister Andrea Leadsom told broadcaster ITV that Britain “won’t know for sure” if a free trade deal is possible with the EU until the end of 2020, even though she’s confident the U.K. will get one.
No Commissioner | The U.K. will not nominate an EU commissioner until after its December 12 election because of so-called “purdah” rules that prevent such appointments during a national vote, Britain’s ambassador to the EU Tim Barrow wrote in a letter to the bloc Wednesday night, according to Politico.
Sluggish Property | Brexit uncertainty continues to weigh on the U.K. housing market, with the upcoming election also contributing to negative sentiment, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors report.
Skeletons Exit Closet | Unwise social media posts have been destroying fledgling political candidates’ careers for almost a decade now, but the evidence in Britain is that the lesson has yet to have been learned, writes Bloomberg’s Kitty Donaldson.
Lib Dem Opportunity | The pro-EU Liberal Democrats see Farage’s pact with the Conservatives as an opportunity to win over moderate voters, party leader Jo Swinson said in an interview with Bloomberg.
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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Kay at ckay5@bloomberg.net, Leila Taha
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