Brexit Bulletin: The Crucial Week
Brexit Bulletin: The Crucial Week
Brexit is 59 days away.
(Bloomberg) --
Today in Brexit: The next explosive five days will shape the history of Brexit and could change Britain.
What’s Happening? This week is shaping up to be one of the most significant in recent British political history. It will dictate the outcome of the U.K.’s departure from the European Union, could prompt a general election, will probably see the upending of Britain’s unwritten constitution, may spell the end of careers, and will likely shape the U.K. for decades to come.
Most of the action will take place in a febrile House of Commons. Furious that Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided to suspend Parliament from next week until the middle of October, MPs feel that they have one final chance to prevent a no-deal Brexit. On Tuesday, when the House sits for the first time since the summer break, opposition Labour’s Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer will present legislation that would force the U.K. to delay Brexit again if an agreement hasn’t been reached. Speaker John Bercow has signaled he’ll go against precedent and allow a vote to enable rebel MPs to pass the law. A series of votes on the legislation could happen as early as Wednesday.
But the government indicated it may even ignore the law. When asked about this possibility on BBC TV Sunday, Michael Gove, the minister in charge of no-deal planning, simply said: “Let’s see what the legislation says.”
Careers are on the line. As The Times reports today, Johnson has threatened to kick out rebel Conservative MPs from the party. They would lose the whip — meaning they’d no longer be part of the Tory group in the Commons — and they’d be banned from standing at the next election, which, many commentators think, may only be a few weeks away.
Despite the turmoil in Westminster, talks between Johnson’s Europe envoy David Frost and the EU negotiating team step up a gear this week. Ambassadors from the bloc’s 27 remaining member states will have a catch-up on Brexit among themselves. Both sides have indicated that they want a deal. But while the EU is prepared to make some concessions over the contentious Irish border backstop, it insists the U.K. must bring forth workable proposals. So far, it hasn’t done so. “I am not optimistic about avoiding a no-deal scenario but we should all continue to work with determination,” EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier wrote in the Sunday Telegraph.
Today’s Must-Reads
- Boris Johnson’s high-stakes Brexit gamble and the U.K.’s week of destiny, as seen by Bloomberg’s Robert Hutton
- Bloomberg Opinion’s Ferdinando Giugliano writes a love letter to the U.K. lamenting the loss of British stability and pleading for pragmatism
- The Financial Times profiles combative House of Commons Speaker John Bercow, who is “at the heart of an unprecedented power struggle”
Brexit in Brief
Moving Out | London’s outsized role in the global insurance industry is being whittled down by Brexit. As much as 61 billion pounds ($75 billion) of business is shifting to rival financial centers in the EU as a consequence of Britain’s vote to leave the bloc, regardless of the divorce terms.
Price Drop | House prices in the U.K. could crash by as much as a fifth if there’s a no-deal Brexit, and the biggest declines would be in London and Northern Ireland, leading accountancy firm KPMG said, according to the Guardian. The analysis of average house prices across the country showed leaving the EU without an agreement could lead to a drop of about 6% in 2020. At worse, a fall of between 10 and 20% could occur if the market reacted more strongly than expected.
Long Waits | Vehicles could face a two-day delay at Dover in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to government documents seen by Sky News. The documents show that even with a best-case scenario, with businesses as prepared as they possibly could be, vehicles will be waiting for two to three hours, with 50% of vehicles waiting for at least eight, the broadcaster reported.
Get Ready | The Guardian has been looking at the government’s no-deal preparation warnings. Renew your passport earlier than planned, buy a GB sticker for your car, and prepare to wait four months before you can take your ferret on holiday are among the snippets of advice on the new official website unearthed by the paper.
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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Iain Rogers at irogers11@bloomberg.net
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