Brexit Bulletin: My Deal or No Deal

Brexit is 29 days away.

(Bloomberg) --

Today in Brexit: Boris Johnson will outline his final offer to the EU as he takes the stage at his party’s annual conference. 

What’s Happening? U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to issue an ultimatum to the European Union as he addresses his party faithful today: Negotiate Brexit on my terms within the next nine days, or face a no-deal divorce. 

Johnson will offer what he calls a “fair and reasonable compromise” offer to the EU, insisting that now is the time to finalize the U.K.’s departure from the European Union. In his speech at the Conservative party conference today he will say the plan aims to counter “forces in this country that simply don’t want Brexit delivered at all.” Investors will be braced for drama in Manchester, after previous conference speeches from Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May rattled the pound. 

Johnson’s latest plan is said to involve scrapping the contentious Irish border “backstop,” putting the whole of the U.K., including Northern Ireland, in a separate British customs regime. Special arrangements for customs and regulatory enforcement on goods crossing the Irish border would apply for around four years. Key details were first reported in the Telegraph on Tuesday night. Johnson told The Sun last night that he thinks there are 10 days to reach a deal with the EU.

The reaction from Ireland was swift, with Foreign Minister Simon Coveney describing the plan as “worrying and concerning” and saying it didn’t look like the basis of a deal. With the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline looming the dilemma of the Irish border is proving as difficult as ever to solve.  

If  Johnson’s solution doesn’t break the deadlock then Britain could be on course to crash out of the bloc without a deal. As Rob Hutton and Kitty Donaldson report, that would set the stage for a showdown —  and a likely court battle — between the government and members of Parliament, who are trying to force him to delay Brexit. Johnson’s office said Tuesday that he would in no circumstances negotiate a delay.  

The ticking clock is focusing some minds. Andrew Rosindell, one of the so-called Spartans, a group of 28 pro-Brexit Conservatives who voted against May’s deal three times and ultimately forced her out, told Bloomberg in an interview Tuesday that this may be the best form of Brexit available. “We’ve reached the end of the road,’’ he said. It remains to be seen if Johnson and the EU agree.

Today’s Must-Reads

• The EU  has its own negotiating position, as Bloomberg's Ian Wishart reports from Brussels: a potential time-limit on the Irish border backstop.
• What are Johnson’s choices from here? George Parker in the Financial Times and Daniel Finkelstein in the Times each weigh up what the prime minister could, and should, do now.
• “Corbynomics” is more popular than you think, academic Matthew Goodwin writes for Bloomberg Opinion, arguing that the Labour leader’s radical agenda could still find support with voters in an upcoming election.

Brexit in Brief

Slump Continues | U.K. manufacturing extended its longest slump since 2009 in September, with renewed stockpiling for Brexit failing to spur a return to growth, data released on Tuesday showed. The domestic market was particularly weak, though there were also reports that uncertainty hit foreign demand. 

Auto Exodus | Nissan Motor Co. will consider moving production of its SUVs outside the U.K. if the country leaves the European Union without a deal, according to people familiar with the matter. Manufacturing of the Qashqai SUV could be moved to Spain, while the compact Juke may move to another overseas plant. The news comes after Jaguar Land Rover said it would close its British factories for a week in November to guard against disruptions to supply chains from a possible no-deal Brexit.

Brexit Budget | U.K. Chancellor Sajid Javid isn’t expected to unveil his first budget until after Oct. 31, the Financial Times reports. The Chancellor had considered a late October date, according to the paper, but now appears to have settled on having it after the Brexit deadline. 

All the Pies | Fans of U.K. bakery chain Greggs will be relieved to hear has devised backup recipes to battle any Brexit food shortage, and started stockpiling ingredients. If there are any disruptions at ports, “we’ll be able to last a few days and then hopefully it will settle down,” Chief Executive Officer Roger Whiteside said.

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Adam Blenford at ablenford@bloomberg.net, Leila Taha

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