Brexit Bulletin: It Could Get Ugly

The Brexit deadline is 92 days away. 

(Bloomberg) --

Today in Brexit: Oct. 31 was meant to be Brexit day, instead parties are gearing up to fight an election.

What’s happening? The starting gun to the December election has been fired and opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn plans to go on the attack in his first speech on Thursday, blasting what he calls the U.K.’s corrupt system. 

While the official campaign won’t start until next week, Corbyn will kick off by criticizing billionaires and repeating his 2017 pledges on nationalization, writes Bloomberg’s Alex Morales. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered an unexpected blow to his campaign as Culture Secretary Nicky Morgan became the latest lawmaker to say she was quitting Parliament before the poll. The senior Cabinet minister cited the “abuse” suffered by lawmakers and pressure faced by her family. 

A divisive Brexit is promising an ugly election campaign. Morgan is not the first lawmaker to step down and multiple members of Parliament have faced death threats, with ministers requiring police escorts in public as Brexit has tested Britain’s political system to its limits. A recent survey found a majority of people thought violence towards MPs was a “price worth paying” to get the Brexit they want. 

Johnson and Corbyn were already trading attack lines on Wednesday, with the prime minister saying the opposition leader was plotting to ruin what should be a “glorious” year in 2020 with another Brexit referendum and delivering an “economic catastrophe” for Britain. Corbyn attacked Johnson’s record on the National Health Service, accusing him of cutting funding and planning to offer the health service up in a future trade deal with the U.S. 

For U.K. companies and the markets, the choice is between Brexit and socialism. Executives say they are “stuck between a rock and a hard place” as a win for Johnson’s Conservatives would see the U.K. leave the European Union, while a left-leaning coalition led by Labour may avert or soften Brexit, but could also overhaul capitalism. Some are putting their faith in an unlikely outcome: An outright victory for the pro-EU Liberal Democrats. 

Today’s Must-Reads

• Brexit is bringing out the worst in Britain and a brutal election campaign will determine what sort of U.K. emerges on the other side, writes Bloomberg’s Alan Crawford. 
• Bloomberg’s Joe Mayes has the full story on the election dilemma facing British businesses, with executives split between Johnson’s Tories and Corbyn’s Labour.
• As another moderate lawmaker steps down, principled politicians are being driven out by their intolerant parties and the general public, writes Jenni Russell in the Times. 

Brexit in Brief

Johnson Boost | The Brexit Party is considering standing aside in hundreds of seats in the election, according to the Telegraph. The strategy would give a boost to Johnson’s chances of winning, with splits said to be emerging in Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party over how best to fight the election. 

Brexit Party Panic | Pound watchers are much more worried about the possibility of the Brexit Party gaining support in the election than of a Corbyn-led coalition government. Strategists and fund managers said Labour could end up being good for the markets if they push for a second referendum. 

Mass Exodus | With Nicky Morgan the latest lawmaker to say she won’t seek re-election, over 50 lawmakers so far are planning to step down this election. The House of Commons will lose over 750 years of Parliamentary experience, according to the BBC. 

Bye Bye Bercow | It’s officially Commons Speaker John Bercow’s last day, though he offered to carry on in the role for a while longer if asked. The Times runs through ten years of hits and misses for the man who has made Speaker something of a celebrity role through the Brexit process. 

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Kay at ckay5@bloomberg.net, Leila Taha

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