Brexit Bulletin: In the Bleak Midwinter

Brexit is (still) 6 days away.

(Bloomberg) --

Today in Brexit: Johnson wants a winter election. His opponents aren’t keen.

What’s happening? We’ve been here before. Yesterday, Boris Johnson demanded an election — this time on Dec. 12 — and the main opposition party indicated it wouldn’t let him. It raises the prospect of a prime minister effectively taken hostage by Parliament, which won’t allow him go to the country on his own terms. Six days before the U.K. is due to leave the European Union, without a Brexit deal passed or delay guaranteed, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Labour’s position isn’t completely clear. Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said he needs to know how long a Brexit delay the EU will grant before making a final decision whether to back the election request. That’s put him at odds with much of his own party, many of whom believe Corbyn should completely rule out Johnson’s plan. Many in his shadow cabinet believe a winter election before Brexit is resolved would be a disastrous mistake, the Times reports.

The situation is complicated further by the EU. Diplomats from the bloc’s 27 remaining countries were due to decide this morning on the length of a Brexit delay (the most likely option being Jan. 31, with early exits possible if the deal is passed). However, last night officials indicated they may now wait until after the weekend because, unfortunately for Corbyn, they want clarity from the U.K. rather than the other way round.

For Johnson, the tactic is connected to the purity of Brexit. He’s worried that without an election, scrutiny of the deal he obtained from the EU this month could drag out to fill a full three-month extension period. Johnson doesn’t want opponents to amend it in ways he finds unacceptable. Yet since becoming prime minister three months ago, he’s also twice failed to win the two-thirds majority needed for an early national vote. Chancellor Sajid Javid said this morning that the government will keep trying to secure an election.

There’s still a long way to go. Much could change today and over the weekend. Depending on who you believe, Johnson is either “playing clever politics” (that’s the Conservative-backing Daily Telegraph) or it’s a “stunt” (the Guardian.)

Today’s Must-Reads

• An oasis for refugees a stone’s throw from Donald Trump’s golf course is a symbol of how Scotland is diverging from the rest of Britain, writes Bloomberg’s Caroline Alexander.
• Johnson’s proposal for Northern Ireland’s closer alignment with EU could ultimately lead to a reunified Ireland, the Financial Times reports.
• What does Boris Johnson really think? The Times has analysed 350,000 words of his newspaper columns to work out his obsessions.

Brexit in Brief

Program Passed | It was easy to miss amid Johnson’s election call, but he actually won something yesterday. Parliament voted to approve the government’s legislative agenda by 310 to 294 votes. The Queen’s Speech set out out 26 bills the government wants to introduce, including seven pieces of Brexit related legislation and an environment bill.

Carney Cautious | “Entrenched uncertainty about the future of the trade relationship” between the U.K. and EU “is having a consequence for business investment,” Bank of England Governor Mark Carney says in the latest edition of Bloomberg Businessweek. “We think the level is about 25% below where it would have been otherwise.” It’s part of a wider interview with Carney by Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua.

Violent Britain | A majority of voters in England, Wales and Scotland believe that the possibility of some level of violence against members of parliament is a “price worth paying” in order to get their way on Brexit, according to a survey by Cardiff University and the University of Edinburgh. 

Blame Game | European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday attacked the “lies Boris Johnson and others” spread during the Brexit referendum campaign and used strong language to say it wasn’t true that the commission was to blame for Britain leaving the EU, the Telegraph reports. Juncker, who is stepping down before the end of the year, said Brexit could have destroyed the EU and split Europe forever.

Soft Impact | The U.K. lost its top spot in an index of global “soft power” compiled by communications agency Portland. Brexit uncertainty saw the U.K. deposed by France, but the country was still praised for its “world-class” cultural institutions, as well as its tech sector and diplomatic network.

Want to keep up with Brexit?

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Kay at ckay5@bloomberg.net, Adam Blenford

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