Brexit Bulletin: Digital Disruption

Days to General Election: 20

(Bloomberg) --

Today on the campaign trail: Labour might be behind in the polls, but it’s ahead in key digital battlegrounds.

In the contest for online influence, messages shared by Labour are getting twice as much traction as those from the Conservatives on major social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter, according to a Bloomberg analysis.

The challenge for Jeremy Corbyn is how to convert this digital advantage into votes in key marginal constituencies. Labour performed better than expected in the 2017 general election, helped by having a superior online operation. But the party still lagged behind the Conservatives even as Theresa May lost her parliamentary majority.

A strong digital campaign has become increasingly important in modern elections, allowing parties to reach new supporters and deliver content to highly specialized audiences. A precision targeting operation on Facebook helped David Cameron win an unexpected majority in 2015. Corbyn remains a social-media draw, and Labour is also boosted by the activist group Momentum, which has a wide online reach and supports the party’s door-knocking efforts.

Still, there are green shoots for the Tories. A video of Boris Johnson making tea and answering questions informally is the most viewed clip of the campaign so far. The increasing professionalization of the Tory social media presence is also closing the gap on Labour, said Matt Walsh, a senior lecturer at Cardiff University.

Johnson’s Conservatives are also courting controversy. The party has flirted with spreading disinformation or misleading content, either to persuade voters or to attract controversy and attention. This week it was reprimanded by Twitter for rebranding its press office account during the leadership debate. With three weeks of the campaign to go, expect the online battle to intensify. 

Today’s Must-Reads

• Healthcare is as central as Brexit to the U.K. election debate, and Johnson’s hopes for a post-Brexit trade deal with the U.S. means the two issues are inextricably linked, writes Bloomberg’s John Lauerman.
• “There isn’t an area of your life that Labour doesn’t think it can improve.” Therese Raphael of Bloomberg Opinion on the Labour manifesto, a “monument to statism.”
• Pie and mash, luxury penthouses, immigration, division. The Guardian previews an upcoming documentary film chronicling one street in London it calls “Brexit Britain in microcosm.”

What to Watch

• The leaders of the four main Westminster parties — Johnson, Corbyn, Jo Swinson of the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon  — will take questions from audience members live on the BBC from 7 p.m. on Friday. 
• The Conservative Party is expected to launch its manifesto on Sunday.

Brexit in Brief

More Than Brexit | Nigel Farage launched his Brexit Party’s policy platform with a call for immigration to be restricted to 50,000 people per year. He said his party, which is not contesting Tory-held seats, is “picking up Labour votes.” Farage also called for electoral reform and the abolition of the House of Lords, as well as changes to corporation tax and fisheries policies.

On the Up | Polling outfit YouGov correctly predicted a hung Parliament in 2017 when many others missed the Corbyn surge. Nevertheless, the company’s chief executive officer sees politics as just a small driver of the five-year, 350% rise in its share price.

London Supreme | Wealth management firm Azura thinks London will remain a top destination for its customer base of billionaire entrepreneurs, regardless of the potential of a left-wing government and Brexit. “No city in Europe can compete with London,” founder Ali Jamal told Bloomberg’s Tom Metcalf.

Pay Up | It’s not just Corbyn’s Labour that wants to raise taxes. The Tories plan to hit foreign buyers of homes in England with a new tax intended to cool prices and help locals get a foot on the housing ladder. The 3% surcharge, on top of the existing tax known as stamp duty, could apply to as many as 70,000 purchases and generate as much as £120 million ($154 million) a year, the party said.

No-Deal Mk II | Failure to finalize a U.K.-EU free trade agreement by the end of 2020 could leave Britain facing a new no-deal Brexit “cliff edge.” Dominic Walsh of the Open Europe think tank has examined what that scenario might look like, and found several key differences to the original no-deal Brexit.

Upset in Uxbridge? | With a majority of just 5,000 in his Uxbridge seat, bookmaker Ladbrokes reckons Johnson has a 22% chance of being ousted in the upcoming election.

Want to keep up with Brexit?

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Adam Blenford at ablenford@bloomberg.net, Chris Kay

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