Brexit Bulletin: Johnson’s Ultimatum

Brexit is 58 Days away.

(Bloomberg) --

Today in Brexit: The pound falls hours ahead of a showdown in Parliament over a possible no-deal Brexit.

What’s Happening? Prime Minister Boris Johnson has put the U.K. on notice that it may face an election within weeks, threatening a third national poll in four years if rebels in his party move against him today. The pound is falling this morning, slipping below $1.20 for the first time since Jan. 2017.

Johnson set out his gamble in a Downing Street address. In a brief statement around 6 p.m. London time yesterday, the prime minister reiterated that he would never consider asking the EU for a new delay to Brexit, a key demand of rebels who oppose no-deal. But while Johnson told the public “I don’t want an election, you don’t want an election,” a senior government official later said members of Parliament should know that if they voted to undermine Johnson’s negotiating position with the EU, they would be voting for fresh polls.

Today is the latest phase of Johnson’s battle against opponents of a no-deal Brexit. Last week he asked the Queen to stop Parliament from meeting for a month; yesterday the prime minister told Cabinet that if rebels win a vote today to take control of parliamentary business, he’ll respond by seeking to hold a general election on Oct. 14. In that vote Johnson would seek a mandate to deliver Brexit that he could use as leverage at a crunch EU Council summit on Oct. 17.

He’s been left considering a new poll as his enemies attempt to force him to delay Brexit by three months rather than allow him to take the U.K. out without a deal on Oct. 31. Here’s the bill opponents of no-deal hope to bring to a vote in Parliament.

Still, to get an election, and keep the threat of an imminent no-deal on the table in negotiations with the EU, Johnson needs two-thirds of MPs to vote for one. He has only 311 of the 434 he needs — and even fewer if he starts expelling Tories for defying him. And while Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said on Monday morning that his party wanted an election, it's by no means certain that  he or his opposition MPs will agree to Johnson's plan.

Today’s Must-Reads

• Writing in the Times, polling guru John Curtice takes a look at the numbers behind Johnson’s potential election gamble.
• Former Tory leader William Hague writes in the Telegraph that calling a general election is the prime minister’s only option.
• How vulnerable is Ireland is to a messy Brexit? Bloomberg’s Peter Flanagan suggests taking a look at its banks.

Brexit in Brief

Last Chance | Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s appearance before the Treasury Committee on Wednesday could be one of his final opportunities to warn MPs in public of what he and the BOE see as the dangers of a no-deal Brexit. As well as the language, watch out for any updated Brexit forecasts from the BOE.

Factory Woe | The U.K.’s manufacturing slump unexpectedly deepened in August as mounting Brexit uncertainty and weaker global growth pushed a gauge of the sector to its lowest level in seven years.

Millennial Stockpiles | A report by Barclaycard indicated that fear of shortages in the event of a disruptive no-deal Brexit is causing many people, in particular young adults, to start stockpiling certain goods. A quarter of 18-34 year-olds reported bulk-buying items such as tinned foods and household supplies, the survey found.

Puppy Power | If Johnson is planning an election, he may have just secured a powerful social media weapon. The prime minister and his partner Carrie Symonds yesterday welcomed a newly adopted Jack Russell puppy to their home after it was saved by a volunteer-run rescue charity in south Wales. The dog was named Dilyn, which means “follow” in Welsh.

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Adam Blenford at ablenford@bloomberg.net, Leila Taha

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