Brexit Bulletin: (Yet Another) Manic Monday

Brexit is 10 days away.

(Bloomberg) --

Today in Brexit: The U.K. is due to leave the European Union 10 days from now. It has a bit of work to do first.

What’s happening? After a dramatic weekend that ultimately resolved very little, Boris Johnson’s government will try again to hold a vote on the prime minister’s Brexit deal. That could put him on a collision course with opposition parties, and with Speaker John Bercow.

And what actually happened at the weekend? In brief: Parliament voted to delay a decision on Johnson’s revised Brexit deal until enabling legislation is on the statute book. The prime minister vowed not to “negotiate” an extension to the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline, but then (as required by law) sent the EU a letter requesting exactly that. He also sent another letter, trying to say that he doesn’t want any delay. Nevertheless, as James Kirkup put it in the Spectator: Boris Johnson “talked a good fight, then caved.” It’s now in the EU’s hands.

The government wants to start again, as soon as today. But Bercow might refuse — he barred former Prime Minister Theresa May from simply trying again with an identical proposal after one of her Brexit deal defeats. And even if Bercow says yes, opponents of Johnson’s Brexit are preparing a raft of amendments that could stymie the passage either of the deal or of accompanying legislation. The pro-Brexit press isn’t thrilled with that.

No-deal supremo Michael Gove told Sky News on Sunday that he feels a no-deal Brexit is now more likely in the wake of Saturday’s vote to delay. With just 10 days left until Brexit, the government has now activated Operation Yellowhammer, allowing departments to take action to offset worst-case outcomes.

Johnson remains bullish because the way Saturday played out raised his hopes of passing the deal if and when it does come to a vote. Bloomberg’s Rob Hutton and Greg Ritchie have been keeping track of the numbers, and we’ve also mapped how MPs voted on the amendment that scuppered the prime minister’s “Super Saturday.”

Today’s Must-Reads

• Bloomberg’s Tim Ross explains what happens next in Brexit, according to government plans.
• “Hopes have been dashed.” Here’s what market players are saying about the Brexit weekend. 
• Business leaders foresee a Brexit hangover into 2020 no matter what happens this week, Eric Pfanner and Siddarth Philip report, starting with a production shutdown at Jaguar Land Rover early next month. 
• Brussels wants to move on from Brexit, writes Wolfgang Munchau in the Financial Times; no one should underestimate how tense the EU extension debate could become, Lionel Laurent writes for Bloomberg Opinion. 

Brexit in Brief

Sterling Slides | The week kicks off with the pound heading lower, Bloomberg’s Anooja Debnath and Ruth Carson report, trading at $1.2922 early on Monday, following a four-day rally last week. Analysts are split over what happens next, but see lower risks of a no-deal exit. The pound could rise as high as $1.36 if Parliament backs the deal, according to Credit Agricole.

Fungible Prolongation | EU leaders are preparing to offer a flexible extension that would allow the U.K. to exit the EU on a variety of different dates depending on when the necessary legislation is passed, the Times reports.

Don’t Worry | Brexit won’t have a big impact on the European or global economies, former Bank of England governor Mervyn King said, offering a counterpoint to persistent concerns by global policy makers that the move could further dent already-weakening growth.

Speaking Out | In a not-so-coded dig at Speaker Bercow, one of his deputies, Dame Eleanor Laing, wrote in the Telegraph that his successor must be an “independent anchor” and set an example through “dignified, respectful behaviour.”

Lawyers Watching | Businesswoman Gina Miller, who has twice defeated the government over Brexit in the Supreme Court, says she’ll challenge any bid to scupper a Brexit extension, and will launch a tactical voting website ahead of an upcoming general election to help voters navigate the U.K.’s “imperfect electoral system.”

Prices Rising | Asking prices for London homes rose 2.4% in October with new listings down 30% from a year earlier, according to Rightmove Plc, in a sign of how the Brexit crisis has made prospective sellers reluctant to take the plunge.

Want to keep up with Brexit?

You can follow us @Brexit on Twitter, and listen to Bloomberg Westminster every weekday.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Caitlin Morrison at cmorrison59@bloomberg.net, Leila Taha

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