Brexit Bulletin: The Wrath of Parliament

Brexit is 36 days away.

(Bloomberg) --

Today in Brexit: Boris Johnson arrives back in London. Parliament is waiting for him.

What’s happening? Wracked by crisis, Boris Johnson is standing firm. Facing calls for his resignation after a stinging rebuke by the U.K. Supreme Court, he arrives in London this morning from New York sounding as defiant as ever.

Johnson will be spared the regular Wednesday jousting of Prime Minister’s Questions when he makes it to Westminster. But after his five-week suspension of Parliament was annulled by the court, and Speaker John Bercow ordered lawmakers back to work, a bleary-eyed Johnson is likely to face an angry House of Commons. The action starts at 11:30 a.m. U.K. time.

He could be emboldened, though, by a scan of this morning’s newspapers. While regular opponents of Johnson’s Brexit policy (the Mirror, the Guardian) do tear into the prime minister, more trusted backers (the Daily Mail, Telegraph and Daily Express) are standing firm. The Financial Times raises eyebrows, with the editorial board using strong language to call the ruling “a devastating indictment of the abuse of power by a prime minister.”

While Johnson said he respects the verdict, Leader of the House of Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg attacked the ruling, calling it a constitutional coup. But Justice Secretary Robert Buckland warned colleagues not to impugn the impartiality of judges.

What does this all mean? Brexit has heaped strain on Britain’s unwritten constitution, write Bloomberg’s Edward Evans and Jonathan Browning. And the path ahead is by no means clear. The government is hamstrung: Johnson cannot force a general election without opposition support; he lacks a majority in Parliament; the court ruling means he cannot suspend, or prorogue, for political ends and Speaker Bercow will empower those who want to stop a no-deal exit to have their say in Parliament.

With Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn insisting that he won’t force an election until he’s certain a no-deal divorce is impossible, the increasingly tense political standoff looks set to continue.

Today’s Must-Reads

• Johnson’s Brexit gamble has failed, says the Bloomberg Editorial Board, calling for him to seek an extension, an election, and eventually a second Brexit referendum.
• What next for the Supreme Court? A crucial role could loom if Johnson refuses to extend the Brexit deadline, writes Bloomberg’s Chris Elser.
• What would a no-deal Brexit really look like? A hard exit is still the U.K.’s default legal position, so Bloomberg’s Joe Mayes and Alex Morales have simulated the first 24 hours of life in no-deal Brexit Britain.

Brexit in Brief

Vandalism and Car Crashes | Lord Sumption, a former Supreme Court justice who retired earlier this year, writes in the Times today that Tuesday’s ruling was “the natural result of Boris Johnson’s constitutional vandalism.” In the same pages, Conservative peer and Times columnist Daniel Finkelstein calls the verdict a “car crash for the Tories,” adding that Johnson’s government “may have to reconsider” its plans for Britain to leave the EU on October 31, deal or no-deal.

Mind the Gap | A Brexit deal with the EU could be Johnson’s best way out of his current tight spot. But after a meeting in New York, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told broadcaster RTE that despite “more detailed” talks, the gap with the U.K. on Brexit “remains very wide.”

About That Deal | Technical-level discussions between U.K. and EU officials will resume in Brussels today. The U.K. on Tuesday sent a fourth set of informal proposals to the European Commission laying out alternative post-Brexit arrangements to the controversial Irish backstop.

We Can’t Hear You | The EU is attempting to put its “metaphorical hands over its metaphorical ears in an attempt to block out the noise” from London, the BBC’s Europe editor Katya Adler says.

Road to Nowhere | The outlook for the pound remains distinctly hazy, Mark Gilbert writes for Bloomberg Opinion, noting that every pound rally in recent months has petered out as quickly as it began. Tuesday’s court ruling leaves investors with absolutely no idea about what happens next, he writes. Sterling traded at $1.2464 early this morning.

Establishment Plot? | Brexit advocate Patrick O’Flynn, a former UKIP MEP, sounds a warning about what he calls the U.K.’s “pro-Remain establishment.” Writing for Brexit Central, he says that the only outcome worse for Remainers than the failure of “their plot to kill Brexit” would be for it to succeed. “The wrath they will face for that will make even the hardest-hearted Brexiteer grimace.”

Case Closed | The U.K.’s National Crime Agency dropped an investigation into whether Brexit-supporting campaign Leave.EU breached electoral law, saying there was insufficient evidence to justify any further criminal probe. Arron Banks, Elizabeth Bilney, Leave.EU and Better for the Country Ltd. were cleared over the £8 million ($10 million) in loans to fund their campaign.

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Leila Taha at ltaha@bloomberg.net, Iain Rogers

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