Brexit Bulletin: All Over

(Bloomberg) -- Today in Brexit: Prime Minister Theresa May is likely to announce the date she’ll step down.

What’s Happening?

Today is the day — the day Theresa May is finally set to acknowledge that she can’t get Brexit over the line and will announce a timetable for her resignation.

After three years in Downing Street, and some seven months since she sealed a Brexit deal with the European Union, May looks likely to walk away in failure. She hasn’t managed to get the deal approved by a Parliament that is trapped between MPs who think it keeps the U.K. too close to the EU and those who think it leaves the U.K. too distant.

As Bloomberg’s Tim Ross, Kitty Donaldson and Jessica Shankleman reported late last night, May intends to quit as Tory leader on June 10 so an election among Conservative Party members to choose her replacement can begin after President Donald Trump’s state visit to Britain.

The contest could take six weeks, and May has to work out the timetable with Graham Brady, the senior Conservative official who oversees the party’s leadership election.

Attention will soon turn to what May’s departure means for Brexit. The EU has said countless times that it won’t reopen the deal and that it won’t countenance any concessions on the “backstop” arrangement for the Irish border that so many members of Parliament hate. But Conservative politicians are already speculating about working with a “new EU” after the appointment of new personnel following this week’s elections to the European Parliament.

That would imply a further delay to Brexit beyond the current extension until Oct. 31. 

Much will depend on whether any replacement for May, such as favorite Boris Johnson, is ready to pull the U.K. out without a deal. The EU is prepared for this scenario and it has already decided how to respond.

But without May — and probably without chief Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins and some EU officials who shaped the Brexit talks, such as Robbins’s EU counterpart Michel Barnier — Britain’s new leader will be tempted to think there’s the possibility for a fresh start.

Europeans will be tempted to think, again, that the U.K. might not leave after all.

Today’s Must-Reads

• As May prepares to leave, Nigel Farage is laughing again. As Tim Ross writes, yesterday’s European Parliament elections in the U.K. were a painful symbol of May’s failure.
• Traders will be watching the Conservative Party leadership contest — and Boris Johnson is still haunting the pound.
• From “vicar’s daughter complex” to the love of high office, the Daily Telegraph looks at what made May cling on so long.

Brexit in Brief

On Your Marks | Read Bloomberg’s guide to how the Conservative Party will pick its new leader and how gaffes are never too far away. These contests are curious beasts in which front-runners often don’t win.

Runners and Riders | Take a look at the contenders for the Tory crown. Could the next prime minister be the favorite everyone has heard of, the former magician’s assistant, the herbal tea-drinking diplomat or the neo-Thatcherite who makes rude jokes about sausages?

Industrial Confusion | Businesses already bewildered by Brexit are bracing for even deeper confusion when May loses power, Joe Mayes reports. “Lost confidence, lack of clarity, it just adds to the mix,” said Mike Cherry, national chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses.

No Say | The U.K. government is facing calls to investigate the treatment of EU citizens in the European elections after many people reported yesterday being denied their right to vote, the Guardian reports. Voters across the country told of their devastation at finding their names crossed off the register due to clerical errors by local councils, the newspaper said.

Ebbing Away | European Central Bank Vice President Luis De Guindos said yesterday that he sees the City of London losing when the U.K. finally leaves the EU. “In the new post-Brexit reality, we could see one or more financial centers emerge in continental Europe,” he said in Frankfurt.

Let Battle Commence | The EU and the City have become too codependent in financial services, Lionel Laurent writes for Bloomberg Opinion. The post-Brexit settlement would be a chance for both sides to break free.

Ireland in Sight | The U.K.’s plans to exit the EU are steering technology companies away from London and toward Dublin, the chief executive of one of Ireland’s biggest real estate firms said.

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Lisa Fleisher at lfleisher2@bloomberg.net, Adam Blenford

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