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Brazil Government on Alert Ahead of Pro-Bolsonaro Demonstrations

Brazil Government on Alert Ahead of Pro-Bolsonaro Demonstrations

(Bloomberg) -- A rally of Brazil government supporters on Sunday is dividing President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration into two camps with contrasting views on how the nationwide demonstrations will play out.

While one group expects the streets will be thronged with voters eager to reaffirm the ex-Army Captain’s decisive election victory in October, the other fears a show of frustration with the results of his government so far. Even though the president initially endorsed the idea, neither he nor any of his ministers are expected to attend the demonstrations.

Sunday’s rallies will be closely watched as a gauge of Bolsonaro’s popular support after five tumultuous months in power. The former congressman won the election with backing from over 57 million voters who embraced his hard-line stance against crime and pledges to revive the economy. Still, in recent weeks Bolsonaro has had to face massive street protests against the government, a sharp decline in approval ratings and rising opposition in Congress.

Brazil Government on Alert Ahead of Pro-Bolsonaro Demonstrations

"It’s difficult to make predictions amid such a tense political environment," said Mauricio Oreng, a Brazil senior strategist at Rabobank. "If the demonstrations indicate a good level of support for the government’s reforms, then financial markets would see that as positive. Any disturbances or more radical messages would be viewed negatively."

The pro-government rallies, organized in part as a response to this month’s protests against education cuts, are planned in over 350 cities including all of Brazil’s largest metropolitan areas. The biggest concentration is expected in the afternoon along the Avenida Paulista thoroughfare in Sao Paulo.

Party Torn

Members of Bolsonaro’s party, the PSL, are also torn over the demonstrations. Important government allies, such as the libertarian pressure group MBL and the Partido Novo, will not participate in the marches amid concerns the rallies may also feature messages against Brazilian institutions.

“The MBL will not take part in the demonstrations on Sunday because we will not sign up to demands to close Congress or the Supreme Court or the rest of this anti-liberal agenda,” said Kim Kataguiri, a lawmaker from the center-right DEM party and one of the founders of the MBL. “We reject the demonization of parliament, the unwillingness to negotiate with deputies and the use of blogs and children to attack those who disagree.”

Bolsonaro himself, who initially endorsed his supporters’ plan, has backtracked and demanded common sense.

“Whoever talks about closing the Supreme Court is not aligned with my politics,” he said in a conversation with journalists on Thursday.

Increasingly Common

Political demonstrations have become increasingly common in Brazil since massive protests broke out in 2013 over a sputtering economy and high-profile cases of corruption. However, it is unusual for an administration in power to call its supporters to the streets.

In 1992, then-President Fernando Collor de Mello, weakened by graft allegations and unpopular economic policies, called his supporters to take to the streets wearing the yellow and green colors of Brazil’s flag. In the event, tens of thousands wore black in protest.

According to Deysi Cioccari, a doctor in political science at the Catholic University of Sao Paulo, calling a demonstration in support of a five-month old administration shows “a certain desperation” for approval.

“For some allies of Bolsonaro, the campaign continues," Cioccari said. "The election was a paradigm shift, but his vote has already been confirmed. What’s missing now is the work to implement the platform on which he was elected."

--With assistance from Josue Leonel and Marisa Castellani.

To contact the reporters on this story: Simone Iglesias in Brasília at spiglesias@bloomberg.net;Samy Adghirni in Brasilia Newsroom at sadghirni@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Juan Pablo Spinetto at jspinetto@bloomberg.net, Bruce Douglas, Matthew Malinowski

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