Brazil Stalks U.S. Fatalities After Virus Cases Tops 1 Million
Brazil Blows Past 1 Million Infections With No Peak in Sight
(Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s Covid-19 infections passed the 1 million mark with no consistent strategy in place to halt the spread of the virus in Latin America’s biggest economy.
The region’s most populous country is only the second nation to reach that grim milestone and, like in the U.S., the surge can be traced to reopenings and social distancing measures being lifted. After months of being cooped up at home, Brazilians are flocking to shopping centers, beauty salons and beaches.
With 1,206 more virus-related fatalities reported on Friday, the death toll rose to almost 50,000. Brazil is on track to surpass the U.S. as the country with the world’s deadliest outbreak, according to the University of Washington’s Institution for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
“Brazil followed the path to disaster,” said Miguel Nicolelis, a neuroscientist who’s helping hard-hit northeastern states coordinate their response.
Across Latin America, the pandemic is proving too much for crumbling health systems and institutions unable to contain or track its spread.
A week after Mexico’s health minister declared the curve had flattened in the capital, Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum called off a gradual reopening as cases sweep through Mexico City. Chile is redoubling efforts to restrict movement, even as it grapples with the painful reality that its mix of poverty and immigration undermines such measures. In Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro vowed to “radicalize” the country’s lockdown after new daily cases hit a record on Wednesday.
Brazil registered an all-time high of 54,771 new cases on Friday, pushing the total past 1.03 million. The surge -- almost 20,000 more than the previous daily record -- was partly due to reporting issues by some states, the Health Ministry said in a statement.
Unreported Cases
Estimates from PUC University in Rio de Janeiro put the disease on course to top 1.3 million infections later this month, with 57,000 dead. The U.S. has recorded more than coronavirus-related 119,000 deaths as of Saturday.
From Mexico to Brazil, it’s widely acknowledged that governments don’t have a good grip on how bad their outbreaks are. In Mexico, packed hospitals and high positive rates — for every 1.77 tests administered, one new case is confirmed — cast doubt on the official tally of some 170,000 infections. In Brazil, University of Pelotas researchers estimate there may be six unreported cases for every diagnosis across 120 cities they studied.
Brazil’s response to the pandemic has been plagued by political infighting and mismatched quarantine orders, making it harder for experts to pinpoint when the disease will peak in the country of 210 million people.
President Jair Bolsonaro is pursuing a jobs-over-the-pandemic drive to reopen the economy, leading to clashes with local governments. Mexico’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has also expressed concern about the pandemic’s toll on economic activity, contributing to disjointed containment efforts.
‘Too Soon’
A second wave of Covid-19 would deepen this year’s recession in Latin America’s three largest economies by more than 1 percentage point, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reported Wednesday. Argentina and Brazil would suffer the biggest hits, shrinking by 10% and 9.1%, respectively. Mexico would contract 8.6%, according to the OECD.
Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes has warned the country’s recession could turn into a depression.
Rio de Janeiro’s health secretary said this week the state has little choice but to abandon social-distancing measures, according to the G1 news website. While reopening may fuel a new wave of cases, the state will soon run out of money to pay doctors if tax collection doesn’t bounce back, he was quoted as saying.
“We’re restarting things too soon,” said Atila Iamarino, a biologist at the University of Sao Paulo. It’s “a delicate time for the pandemic.”
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