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Blair Sees Brexit, Local Issues Dominating: U.K. Campaign Trail

Blair Sees Brexit, Local Issues Dominating: U.K. Campaign Trail

(Bloomberg) --

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair, who led Labour to three successive victories, will use a speech on Monday to describe British politics as “utterly dysfunctional” and urge voters to examine how they cast their ballot in “650 mini-elections.”

Blair will highlight how voters no longer identify along party lines and are more likely to identify themselves with their decision in the 2016 European Union referendum. That means parties are focusing on the local detail perhaps more than ever before. On Sunday, when Boris Johnson launched the Conservative Party manifesto in Telford, he made a point of taking a question on the district’s emergency department. It’s a pattern repeated in target seats across the country, with both parties trying to demonstrate that local concerns really matter despite the national clamor over Brexit.

For more on the election visit ELEC.

Coming up:

  • Former Tory Culture Secretary Nicky Morgan takes on the breakfast broadcast round to defend the party’s election manifesto.
  • Labour will set out plans to take on “dodgy” landlords and introduce a charter of renters’ rights.

Polls:

  • The Conservatives enjoy a double-digit lead over Labour in at least six different polls released over the weekend.
  • Deltapoll and BMG Research both put Johnson’s party ahead by 12 points.
  • Opinium gave the Conservatives a 19-point lead.
  • YouGov show the Tories with a 12-point lead, while Savanta ComRes puts them 10 points ahead.
  • Survation poll gave the Tories an 11-point lead.
  • Separately, analysis of YouGov polls by Datapraxis suggests the Conservative Party will win a 48-seat majority.

Catching Up:

  • Johnson used his manifesto launch to say his party won’t raise income tax, value-added tax or national insurance rates.
  • He also pledged to recruit 50,000 nurses and said the National Health Service wouldn’t be “on the table” in post-Brexit trade talks.
  • Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said in a BBC TV debate on Friday he’d stay neutral in a second Brexit referendum, later defending his position as a sign of “maturity.”
  • Corbyn’s deputy John McDonnell said on Sunday he’d wait for the deal Labour could strike with the EU before deciding whether to campaign to leave or remain.
  • Johnson plans to hit foreign buyers of homes in England with a new tax intended to cool prices and help locals get on the housing ladder.

The Markets:

  • The pound gained 0.1% against the dollar at 6:48 a.m. in London on Monday.
  • Investors are becoming more confident the Tories will win the election, with funds betting on the pound to strengthen.
  • There’s now a 74% chance of a Conservative Party majority, according to odds offered by bookmakers Paddy Power.
Blair Sees Brexit, Local Issues Dominating: U.K. Campaign Trail

--With assistance from Dara Doyle.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kitty Donaldson in London at kdonaldson1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Chris Kay, Guy Collins

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