The EU’s Biggest Fan Isn’t Even a Member

(Bloomberg) -- In the volatile Balkans, where impoverished nations are weighing whether to stick to their hope of one day joining the West or accept Russia’s eager embrace, Kosovo has its eyes firmly set on Europe.

As the country of 1.9 million heads into Sunday’s snap general elections, all parties set to win seats in parliament firmly back the dream of European Union membership. It’s a rare geopolitical consensus in a region still coming to terms with the wars that tore apart the former Yugoslavia a quarter century ago.

Those conflicts continue to haunt Kosovo’s path to the EU and have made it difficult to mend ties with wartime foe Serbia. After talks collapsed last year, the next government’s first decision will be whether and how to get them back on track if either country wants to progress with EU accession. While there are no reliable polls, it’s clear that whoever wins will need to form a coalition to give the government majority support.

“We need the next government to stabilize relations with Serbia, so that we can start to get integrated into the EU,” said Jeta Citaku, a 34-year-old opera singer sipping an espresso at a cafe in Pristina, the capital. “We are a young nation that is building its state, and the EU is our passion.”

International Recognition

Even if the next administration in Pristina manages to get negotiations back on track, it’ll face a mountain of challenges, including overhauling an economy where output per capita is just over a 10th of the EU average. It also has to retool its courts to EU norms and tackle thorny issues from corruption to human rights.

Then there’s Serbia. After fighting a war in Kosovo until 1999, when North Atlantic Treaty Organization bombers forced its troops out, it has vowed to never recognize an entity many Serbs consider the cradle of their religious and cultural identity.

Since Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in 2008, consecutive Serbian governments have leveraged support from Russia and China to back that stance at the United Nations, a position that five EU members also support.

The two neighbors looked to be nearing a potential rapprochement when Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and his Kosovar counterpart, Hashim Thaci, floated the idea of a land swap that would allow each side to integrate areas populated by their ethnic kin.

But even in Kosovo, that plan didn’t win support. It sparked the biggest protest in Pristina’s history and the denouncement from Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj, who resigned in July to face an interrogation by a war crimes tribunal. EU leaders also rejected the idea, fearing that redrawing borders would trigger an unpredictable chain of events while stoking simmering tensions.

Talks stalled as Belgrade blocked Kosovo from joining Interpol and Pristina responded with a 100% tax on Serb imports. Serbia has also persuaded 15 countries to withdraw their recognition of Kosovo’s independence.

Haradinaj, the 51-year-old former Kosovo Liberation Army leader twice acquitted of war crimes charges, has since cut ties with his former coalition partner Thaci and is heading into the ballot with his own party.

“The discussion about the partition of our territory nearly destroyed 20 years of investment into stability of our region,” Haradinaj said in an interview last week. “It’s dangerous, as it would reopen the questions of the past.”

While all the parties agree on the goal of EU membership and want to end Kosovo’s isolation, Haradinaj’s opponents argue that the nation needs new leaders untainted by the war to achieve that. Self-Determination and the Democratic League of Kosovo have been calling for more drastic measures against corruption.

Chance of Victory

The Self-Determination party, one of the four groups with a chance of victory, agrees with Haradinaj on the land swap and said any concessions are contingent of Serbia recognizing Kosovo.

That’s put Vucic in a tough spot. He’s balancing between Serbia’s EU aspirations and the nation’s traditional ties with Russia, which under President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly railed against the further expansion of NATO into former communist Europe.

Time’s ticking for both Kosovo and Serbia as they look toward EU entry as a way to root out widespread corruption, bring in foreign investment and boost some of the lowest living standards in Europe. Both are also struggling to staunch a massive exodus of skilled workers that’s undercutting productivity.

Haradinaj wouldn’t say whether he would abolish tariffs on Serbian goods if re-elected.

“We are interested in reconciliation and we can have peace with Serbia if they are interested,” he said. “But we can’t just satisfy Serbia for peace.”

--With assistance from Misha Savic and Zoe Schneeweiss.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jasmina Kuzmanovic in Zagreb at jkuzmanovic@bloomberg.net;Rosalind Mathieson in London at rmathieson3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andrea Dudik at adudik@bloomberg.net, Michael Winfrey

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.