Biden’s Campaign Says Iowa Caucus Isn’t a Must-Win

(Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential front-runner Joe Biden’s campaign argued Tuesday that his case for electability will still be strong even if he loses the first party contests.

A top Biden campaign official said the former vice president may not win the Iowa caucus or the New Hampshire primary, and the race likely will remain competitive far beyond the first four primaries and caucuses. The official and two others briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity.

The official’s comment, hedging for the possibility of a loss in the first-in-the-nation nominating contest, is at odds with Biden’s repeated message to voters and reporters in Iowa that the state holds “the key to the kingdom.” The official said that while Iowa is extremely important to Biden’s candidacy, losing there wouldn’t destroy his electability argument with the rest of the country.

The official also sought to lower expectations in the next state on the calendar, New Hampshire, saying it has traditionally favored candidates from neighboring states. Senator Elizabeth Warren is from Massachusetts and Senator Bernie Sanders is from Vermont. The official said polls in early primary and caucus states -- where Biden largely leads -- are likely to get tighter as more voters tune into the race in the coming months.

The race is likely to become a battle between three or four candidates, the official said. At the very least, a second official said, the former vice president’s campaign sees Biden, Sanders and Warren as likely to stay in the race well past Super Tuesday at the beginning of March.

The most recent Iowa caucus poll, conducted by Monmouth University and released Aug. 8, had Biden leading the race at 28%, with Warren in second at 19%. California Senator Kamala Harris had 11% and all other candidates were in single digits. Biden’s standing improved by 1 percentage point -- well within the margin of error -- compared with Monmouth’s previous poll, in April. Warren gained 12 points.

Biden’s aides also sought to lower expectations for a Biden showdown with Warren during the Sept. 12 presidential debate in Houston, the first time the two candidates will share a debate stage.

The third official said that while the media is attempting to frame the debate as a clash between Biden’s centrist views and Warren’s more progressive platform, that’s not how many voters look at the race. And, the official added, there won’t just be two candidates on the debate stage, there will be 10.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Epstein in Washington at jepstein32@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Wendy Benjaminson at wbenjaminson@bloomberg.net, Max Berley

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