Biden Expects Russia to ‘Move In’ on Ukraine; Warns of Sanctions
Biden said he thinks Putin doesn’t want a war but will “move in” on Ukraine after amassing 100,000 troops on its border.
(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden said he thinks Vladimir Putin doesn’t want a full-blown war but will “move in” on Ukraine after amassing 100,000 troops on its border, part of an extraordinarily blunt assessment of Russian intentions and the West’s likely response.
“I’m not so sure he has -- is certain -- about what he’s going to do,” Biden said of his Russian counterpart during a nearly two hour-long news conference Wednesday marking his first year in office. “My guess is he will move in, he has to do something.”
While the president said the U.S. and its European allies are united on making sure Russia faces “severe economic consequences,” Biden acknowledged what his top aides have so far said only in private: that NATO allies are divided about what to do if Russia takes action against Ukraine that falls short of an invasion.
“I think what you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades,” Biden said. “And it depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do.” If Putin chooses to continue or ramp up cyber attacks on Ukraine, Biden said, “we can respond the same way, with cyber.”
Biden’s mixed messaging on Ukraine will be seen by his political opponents and some adversaries as giving Putin a green light to, at the very least, continue harassing behavior against Ukraine.
Representative Michael McCaul of Texas, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement that “rather than promising to act only in the event of a major renewed invasion, what is needed is strong U.S. leadership to rally a punishing response to Vladimir Putin’s aggression right now.”
Representative Liz Cheney, a Wyoming Republican, said in a tweet that “Biden’s description of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine as a ‘minor incursion’ was deeply troubling & dangerous.”
For the same reason, the president’s comments could cause heartburn among European allies and his secretary of state, Antony Blinken, who was in Kyiv Wednesday seeking to show support for Ukraine’s leaders ahead of a meeting with Russia’s foreign minister on Friday.
After first suggesting the U.S. might not respond as forcefully if Putin launches a minor incursion, Biden later sought to clarify that any invasion would prompt sanctions, while other Russian actions such as cyberattacks would provoke a different response. And he struck an alarmist tone, saying he was worried “this could get out of hand, very easily get out of hand,” given Russia’s status as a nuclear state.
Joining NATO
Nor were those the only surprises from Biden. He also said something else his top aides and allies have been reluctant to concede: that Ukraine is unlikely to be admitted to NATO any time soon.
“The likelihood that Ukraine is going to join NATO in the near term is not very likely, based on much more work they have to do in terms of democracy and a few other things going on, and whether or not major allies in the West would vote to bring Ukraine in right now,” the president said.
Putin has said he does not plan to invade Ukraine.
A formal promise to never allow Ukraine into the Western military alliance is a key demand of Putin, who wants the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to withdraw to its borders prior to 1997. The alliance has repeatedly said that demand is a non-starter, and it’s not clear if Biden’s remarks -- inadvertent or not -- will be enough to assuage Putin.
Even as Biden’s news conference continued, officials at the National Security Council sought to clarify the president’s remarks. Spokeswoman Emily Horne said on Twitter that the president “was referring to the difference between military and non-military/para-military/cyber action by the Russians. Such actions would be met by a reciprocal response, in coordination with Allies and partners.”
After the conference ended, the NSC said in a statement that “President Biden also knows from long experience that the Russians have an extensive playbook of aggression short of military action, including cyberattacks and paramilitary tactics. And he affirmed today that those acts of Russian aggression will be met with a decisive, reciprocal, and united response.”
Pressed during the news conference on whether he has determined Putin is definitely going to attack, Biden said “I don’t know whether he’s decided if he wants to do that or not.” In a response that wandered into how Putin views Russia’s role in the post-Cold War world, Biden said the Russian leader’s decision might depend on which side of the bed he wakes up on one day.
While top U.S. officials have stepped up their warnings in recent weeks about Putin’s likely intentions -- and Russian officials continue to say they don’t plan to invade -- Biden’s remarks were the starkest yet about the crisis on the border. He emphasized that a major attack would prompt a devastating economic response.
“If they actually do what they’re capable of doing it is going to be a disaster for Russia.” Pressed on whether sanctions are an effective tool against Putin, Biden said “he’s never seen sanctions like the ones I’ve promised will be imposed if he moves.”
Punishing Sanctions
An administration official, briefing reporters after the news conference, laid out a case for punishing sanctions against Moscow and said Russia’s economy isn’t well-positioned to handle the measures.
The official, who asked not to be identified discussing potential actions, said the U.S. knows how to target Russia’s biggest financial institutions while limiting the impact on the U.S., European and global economy. The official said there is a convergence with European allies on export restrictions to hit Russian industry, adding that financial markets are just beginning to realize the potential scope of actions.
Yet Biden acknowledged it would be crucial, and potentially difficult, to keep NATO united on the response to a move short of all-out war on Ukraine. “That’s what I’m spending a lot of time doing,” Biden said. “And there are differences in NATO as to what countries are willing to do, depending on what happens, the degree to which they’re able to go.”
There are also clear signs that European nations aren’t on the same page when it comes to the package of sanctions that would hit Moscow following a full attack.
Some European governments have expressed anxiety that hitting Russia hard could damage their own economies, or perhaps spur Putin to cut off essential gas supplies to them. And because the bulk of any European Union-wide response would have to be agreed to by all 27 member states, several governments are keen to avoid a full debate for now, fearing it would advertise potential differences.
As a result, rather than laying out agreement on specific actions, a draft of a joint statement that European Union foreign ministers will be asked to adopt on Monday is mostly limited to echoing what the bloc’s leaders agreed last month.
Blinken will get a chance to further explain the president’s views -- and press for European unity -- during meetings in Berlin on Thursday, where he is scheduled to meet with new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Blinken suggested the U.S. knows the ball is really in Putin’s court, that the Russian leader will ultimately decide on whether the crisis is resolved peacefully or not.
“We need to see where we are and see if there remain opportunities to pursue the diplomacy and pursue the dialog,” Blinken said after wrapping up his meetings in Kyiv.
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.