Belarus Holds Military Parade, Defies Neighbors’ Virus Fears

(Bloomberg) -- For the authoritarian president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, a deadly global pandemic was no reason to cancel a military parade marking victory in World War II.

Defying warnings about the risks of letting the coronavirus spread and amid an average of about 800 new infections a day, Lukashenko summoned troops to the capital, Minsk, for the parade to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany. Neighboring states including Russia changed their plans as gatherings of thousands of spectators will inevitably spread the disease.

“The tragedy of the Belarusian nation, which bore the titanic burden of losses and destruction of the cruelest war of the 20th century, is incomparable to any of the hardships of today,” said Lukashenko, wearing a military uniform. He called the idea of not celebrating May 9 a “betrayal” of the war dead.

It’s the fate of the living that has made authorities in countries bordering the former Soviet republic nervous about Lukashenko’s refusal to concede ground to the coronavirus. He’s already made Belarus an outlier among states fighting the spread of the disease by refusing to close shops and businesses. He hasn’t ordered citizens to stay home, and he has imposed few social distancing requirements.

Belarus has averaged more than 800 new coronavirus cases a day in the past two weeks, lifting total infections to 22,052 by Saturday with 126 deaths.

Russia, which imposed a nationwide lockdown at the end of March, hopes the “varying approaches” in Belarus won’t lead to “some kind of explosive growth” in infections, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call on Wednesday. Russia is holding a low-key ceremony after scrapping the traditional Red Square parade as the country has seen daily increases of around 10,000 infections for the past week and it’s now close to the 200,000 mark.

Among Belarus’s other neighbors, Ukraine, with a population of 42 million, has reported 14,710 cases, Poland has 15,510 infections among its 38 million people and Lithuania has recorded 1,444 cases in its population of 2.8 million people.

Lithuania is “closely watching Belarus, concerned that there has been an explosion” of Covid-19 cases there, Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius told his Belarusian counterpart Vladimir Makei in a May 5 phone call.

‘Die Standing’

Governments that postponed or changed Victory Day celebrations made a “brave decision” in the interests of public health, World Health Organization Regional Director for Europe Hans Kluge said on Thursday. “We have a great respect for this historical day, but this is really the time to look for alternative solutions in order not to jeopardize human lives,” he said.

While Lukashenko, 65, has acknowledged the virus can be dangerous, particularly for the elderly, he also dismissed responses to the epidemic as a “psychosis.” He made light of the risks, saying that working on farmland and playing ice hockey could help protect against the illness. As Russia closed its borders to foreigners in March over the virus, Lukashenko declared: “It’s better to die standing than to live on your knees.”

On Wednesday, he said Belarusian men with partners should avoid kissing “other women” to protect themselves from the virus, adding “be patient for a month. If you are stuck with your family -- stay with the family.”

Lukashenko has ruled the country of 9.4 million since 1994, and he’s poised to run for his sixth term in elections on Aug. 9 that are largely seen as a foregone conclusion. The virus and any lockdown in response to it risk heavy economic and political consequences for him.

The International Monetary Fund expects gross domestic product in Belarus to decline 6% this year, while Lukashenko is seeking to borrow as much as $2.5 billion abroad to keep his economy afloat.

Belarus could lose as much as 3 percentage points of annual growth a month under a lockdown, depending on its severity, said Dmitry Kruk, senior fellow at the BEROC research group in Minsk. “That’s a lot and very unpleasant, but the cost of overwhelming the medical system could be much higher,” he said.

Normal Life Continues

Belarusians are split on the threat they face from the virus. Many have limited their social contacts and kept children at home from school, and companies in the country’s burgeoning tech sector have led the way in telling employees to work from home. Still, parks in Minsk are crowded on sunny days, with masks optional, while cafes and restaurants remain open.

Russian teenager Lisa Shilova watched the parade from behind a red security ribbon as she didn’t have a ticket for the tightly packed stands. The legacy of the war and its veterans aren’t given sufficient respect in her country, she said.

“The victory was achieved with great sacrifice and effort,” said the small blond in a black sports suit and sneakers who traveled 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) by bus from Ivanovo, Russia, just to watch the celebrations. “It is very exciting to watch how it’s done in Belarus, the sheer scale of it,” she marveled, as about 3,000 servicemen lined up on the avenue.

Lisa, not wearing a mask, said she was sure that keeping basic hygiene like washing hands and not touching one’s face is enough to keep the risk minimal. While some spectators and security personnel had masks or gloves on, most people, including the soldiers, didn’t.

Lukashenko defended his laissez faire approach to the pandemic on Friday during a visit to a Russian Orthodox church in Minsk. “If we carry on in this way, we will definitely forget about the coronavirus in a month,” he said.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.