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EU Leaders Speak Up on Belarus in Test of Geopolitical Relevance

Belarus Gives the EU a Chance to Show Its Geopolitical Relevance

European leaders upped the rhetoric on Belarus in what could be a defining historical moment for the EU to try and flex its rarely used foreign-policy muscle.

The bloc’s 27 leaders will hold an emergency conference call on Wednesday to discuss the violent aftermath of Belarus’s presidential election, which the EU said was neither “free nor fair.” According to one official, they may decide to call for a new vote and reinforce the need for sanctions with a view that their credibility is at stake with an escalating conflict at their doorsteps.

The EU’s leadership believes the response to the situation has been too muted, in particular on the role that Russian President Vladimir Putin might play in shoring up Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, according to an EU official. And while options are limited, there is scope to redefine the EU’s international role while mindful that nothing can be done without Putin.

Germany’s Angela Merkel spoke to Putin Tuesday to make “it clear that the right to freedom of speech, and to demonstrate, must be present, and that prisoners must be released,” she told reporters. France’s Emmanuel Macron had his own chat with the Russian leader, reinforcing the same point. Together France and Germany form the political and economic backbone of the bloc.

EU Leaders Speak Up on Belarus in Test of Geopolitical Relevance

No Meddling

European Council President Charles Michel, who will chair the video conference, is acutely aware of the complexities. In a letter to the leaders and in a nod to Putin, he made the point that “there should be no outside interference.”

In the meantime, the bloc’s foreign ministers will begin working on sanctions -- though leaders may push to expedite them. The call will be as much about showing how the EU can act when it believes a line has been crossed, one EU official said, and it will test its willingness to directly challenge Putin.

Another added that while the outcome needs to be more than a mere statement, there’s a balancing act between sending a strong signal and taking steps that are counter-productive such as recognizing the opposition challenger Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.

One official said it’s too early to even consider such an option. On the ground in Belarus, opposition figures are seeking to reassure Russia will remain an important partner as protests spread.

Since emerging from a decade of internal crises -- from euro-area debt chaos to the U.K. becoming the first country to leave the bloc -- the EU has found itself caught in a struggle between the U.S. and China, and with its old foe Russia still causing trouble. No longer able, and in some cases willing, to piggyback onto American power, the EU wants to strike out on its own.

Eastern European countries geographically close to Belarus such as Poland and the Baltic states pushed for the call, arranged for noon Brussels time on Wednesday, but Michel needed little persuasion, EU officials said.

EU Leaders Speak Up on Belarus in Test of Geopolitical Relevance

He and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen started their mandates at the end of last year with teams that reflected a new-found focus on international issues and although the coronavirus pandemic has stymied their plans, that vision hasn’t altered. And the EU’s foreign-policy chief, Spain’s Josep Borrell, has shown a willingness in the past to speak his mind even though he has limited powers.

“These peaceful demonstrations had clear demands: the release of all unlawfully detained people, the prosecution of those responsible for police brutality, and holding of new presidential elections,” Borrell said in a statement on Monday. “The sheer numbers clearly show that the Belarusian population wants change, and wants it now. The EU stands by them.”

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.