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Austria's Kurz Strengthened by EU Win as Confidence Vote Looms

Austria's Kurz Strengthened by EU Win as Confidence Vote Looms

(Bloomberg) -- Sebastian Kurz is about to find out if he gets to keep his job.

On Monday, the Austrian chancellor heads into a vote of no confidence emboldened by the fact that his conservative People’s Party came first in weekend European elections while his opposition failed to capitalize on a one-week-old scandal that forced his deputy to resign.

It’s a result that Europe’s youngest leader is hoping can help him cling on to power. The leaked video blew up his alliance with the nationalist Freedom Party, which in the end held up better than expected as Austrians voted for their representatives in the European Parliament.

Austria's Kurz Strengthened by EU Win as Confidence Vote Looms

Kurz called the result “amazing,” but it’s too soon to celebrate. Back in Vienna, lawmakers will convene for the first time since a bombshell video showed far-right leader Heinz-Christian Strache promising government contracts for campaign funding.

Austria's Kurz Strengthened by EU Win as Confidence Vote Looms

On the agenda is a vote of no-confidence against Kurz, whose political position remains precarious as the parliamentary math doesn’t stack in his favor. The Social Democrats -- his main opposition -- together with his estranged partner could oust him if they want.

Both say they don’t trust Kurz -- if for different reasons. The Social Democrats resent him for ending their coalition in 2017 and were appalled when Kurz hinted one of their former advisers may have something to do with the scandal. They decided late on Sunday to vote for removing Kurz, Chairwoman Pamela Rendi-Wagner told Austrian public broadcaster ORF.

The Freedom Party is furious that Kurz dissolved the coalition even after Strache stepped down. It will decide before the parliament session Monday morning how it will vote.

Opinion polls suggest Austrians don’t want Kurz removed. “Kurz would totally embrace his role as a martyr if he’s driven out of office,” said Thomas Hofer, a political consultant and analyst in Vienna.

Kurz has proven he has political chops but his dilemma remains: he’s far away from a majority that would let him rule alone. If he wants to govern again after snap elections in September, he’ll have to make a deal with one of the parties that could give him the boot on Monday.

Since taking power in 2017, Kurz has tried to show conservatives across Europe that they can achieve their goals by working with their nationalist rivals. But the collapse of his coalition has served rather to highlights the risks of getting into bed with a party that has spent much of its time on the fringes of the mainstream.

To contact the reporter on this story: Boris Groendahl in Vienna at bgroendahl@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Chad Thomas at cthomas16@bloomberg.net, Flavia Krause-Jackson, Zoe Schneeweiss

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