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Assembly Elections: Exit Polls Show BJP’s Growing Dominance In Maharashtra, Haryana

BJP-led governments are likely to return to power in Maharashtra and Haryana. This time, even with a bigger mandate.

Uddhav Thackeray and Devendra Fadnavis, in Navi Mumbai, on Sept. 25, 2019. (Photograph: PTI)
Uddhav Thackeray and Devendra Fadnavis, in Navi Mumbai, on Sept. 25, 2019. (Photograph: PTI)

Incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party-led governments are expected to return to power with an even bigger mandate in Maharashtra and Haryana, according to a series of exit polls.

In Maharashtra, the ruling BJP-Shiv Sena alliance are likely to win well over 200 seats out of 288, according to an average of five exit polls. That's higher than the 185 seats they had in the previous assembly polls.

Haryana, too, will see the return of BJP’s Manohar Lal Khattar. The saffron party is expected to win nearly 70 out of 90 seats, with one poll even pegging the number as high as 75. In the previous assembly polls, BJP had 47 seats.

Assembly Elections: Exit Polls Show BJP’s Growing Dominance In Maharashtra, Haryana

The results suggest continued dominance of BJP, barely five months after it swept the Lok Sabha elections led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity. The polls in Maharashtra and Haryana were the first set of assembly elections held since then.

“It shows that BJP has consolidated its position across the regions—it is now the number one party,” said Amitabh Tiwari, political analyst and co-founder of LoudST. “It has also been able to adopt a social engineering strategy whereby it ignores the dominant caste—Marathas in Maharashtra and Jats in Haryana—and it consolidates all other caste groups against those communities. That is relatively easy to do because most of the people are antagonistic towards the dominant caste groups, and then makes them fall in line.”

It has managed to achieve a social cohesion of caste blocs which account for 75-80 percent population in both states. It’s almost an invincible combination it has been able to achieve.
Amitabh Tiwari, Co-Founder, LoudST

The BJP and Shiv Sena had agreed to an alliance in Maharashtra after months of bickering over seat share. Still, Tiwari said, that they may have been reluctant to break a winning alliance due to doubts on whether they will be able to secure a majority on their own.

The rivalling Congress-NCP duo, which saw an exodus of leaders in the run up to the polls, is unlikely to make a dent. “BJP has successfully decimated the Pawar stronghold of Western Maharashtra,” Tiwari noted.

Assembly Elections: Exit Polls Show BJP’s Growing Dominance In Maharashtra, Haryana

In Haryana, things were less straightforward. The state was poised for a four-way contest between the BJP, Congress, Indian National Lok Dal, and the Jannayak Janta Party.

The Congress suffered a jolt ahead of the election after its state unit President Ashok Tanwar quit and declared his support for fledgling Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party—a breakaway faction of the INLD.

But that seems to have worked in the saffron party’s favour.

“Haryana is not a bipolar contest,” Tiwari said. “There the factionalism within the Congress, and the factionalism between the INLD which split the party in two blocs led to the division of anti-BJP votes between three parties. This has helped BJP’s fortunes.”

WATCH | Sanjay Pugalia and Amitabh Tiwari break down the exit poll results.