Assembly Election Exit Poll: Photo Finish In MP, Chhattisgarh; Congress Ahead In Rajasthan
The exit poll surveys for the final five state assembly elections before 2019 are out today.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Close Fight In MP, Chhattisgarh
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party’s popularity is in doubt as exit polls for elections that ended Friday in five states showed inconclusive projections before general elections next year. Here's the detailed breakup:
Madhya Pradesh
- Two of five polls show Congress in the lead, while one shows BJP retaining power.
- Two polls predict a neck and neck contest.
Rajasthan
- Congress looks set to make a comeback in the state.
- Four exit polls show the Congress crossing the majority mark, while one shows a close fight
Chhattisgarh
- Three of five polls are predicting a close battle.
- Two outlier polls - one each predicting a big victory for the BJP and the Congress.
- The Ajit Jogi–Mayawati combine seems to have been a non starter.
Telangana
- K Chandrashekar Rao's gambit of calling early elections seem to have paid off.
- The Congress-TDP alliance is seen falling well short in three of the four exit polls.
Mizoram
- The Mizo National Front is projected to defeat the Congress Party.
What The Exit Polls Say? Watch Here:
Watch: Analysing The Exit Poll Trends
Mizoram Exit Polls: MNF Leading
Two exit polls in the state of Mizoram show the Mizo National Front ahead of the ruling Congress party.
- C-Voter shows the MNF winning between 16 and 20 seats in the 40-member assembly, with trailing at 14-18 seats.
- The Axis My India exit poll projects a 16-22 seat tally for the MNF.
In the Axis poll, both the Congress and the Zoram People’s Movement are projected to get 8-12 seats.
Mizoram is the only state in the north-east with a Congress government. The other six in the region have governments that are directly or indirectly linked to the National Democratic Alliance.
Telangana Exit Polls: TRS Seen Retaining Power
Three of four exit polls are giving the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi a clear lead in the first standalone election held in India’s newest state. The fourth – the C-Voter exit poll is projecting the TRS and the Congress-TDP alliance getting nearly an equal number of seats in the 119-member state assembly.
The CNX exit poll projects the TRS winning 66 seats – a marginal improvement on its 2014 performance of 63, the Congress-TDP seen at 37, the BJP at 7.
The Jan Ki Baat exit poll has a projection with the TRS ahead in a 50-65 range, and the Congress-TDP likely to bag between 38 and 52 seats.
The Axis My India poll is showing the TRS return to power with an increased majority. This poll projects 79-91 seats for Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao, with the Congress-TDP a distant second at 21-33.
A poll-of-polls average has the TRS getting 65 seats, well over the half-way mark, with the Congress-TDP at 41.
The Bharatiya Janata party’s projected tally is in single digits in all four exit polls.
Rajasthan: Four Exit Polls Show Congress Winning
The C-Voter, Axis My India polls are showing a big win for the Congress in Rajsthan, while CNX and CSDS-Lokniti are projecting that the party will cross the half-way mark, but not by a big margin, in the 200-seat assembly.
The Jan Ki Baat exit poll shows the contest in dead-heat, estimating that the BJP could win between 83 and 103 seats, and the Congress getting between 81 and 101.
Here’s the breakdown for the two exit polls that show healthy wins for the Congress:
- C-Voter expects the Congress to cross a two-third majority, projecting that it will win 137 seats, sending BJP Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje’s tally down to 60.
- The Axis My India poll has given the Congress a range of 119-141 seats, with the BJP falling to 55-72.
Two exit polls that suggest that the Congress will win, but by a smaller margin:
- CSDS expects the Congress to win 101 seats, and the BJP 83.
- CNX projects the Congress winning 105 and the BJP 85.
A poll-of-polls average of these five exit polls suggests that the Congress could be returning to power, in a state that has not given any government a second term in the last 20 years
Chhattisgarh: True To History, Close Fight Again
Like in Madhya Pradesh, the C-Voter exit poll shows an edge for the Congress, while the CNX exit poll shows the BJP holding on to power for a fourth term.
In the C-Voter exit poll, the Congress is projected to bag between 40 and 50 seats in the 90-member assembly, and the BJP’s tally seen dropping to a range between 35 and 43.
The CNX poll is projecting a seat-tally that is little-changed from the 2013 position. The CNX exit poll expects the BJP to win 46 seats, and the Congress to get 35.
The Jan Ki Baat exit poll expects the BJP to have its nose ahead, giving it between 40 and 48 seats, and the Congress 37-43 seats.
There are two outliers:
- The Axis My India exit poll is projecting a big win for the Congress – expecting it to win between 55 and 65 seats. This poll projects the BJP tally at 21 to 31 seats.
- The CSDS-Lokniti poll projects the BJP winning, with 52 seats, and the Congress getting 35. This poll exit shows the BSP-JCC alliance drawing a blank.
A poll-of-poll average of these five shows the Congress and the BJP at nearly the same tally, both short of the half-way mark.
The Bharatiya Janata Party has won all three elections that have been held in Chhattisgarh – in 2003, 2008, 2013.
Madhya Pradesh: Congress And BJP Seen Neck And Neck
Five agencies have released their exit polls for Madhya Pradesh, the largest prize among the five states that went to the ballot box.
The C-Voter, and Lokniti-CSDS exit polls are projecting a lead for the Congress, while the Jan Ki Baat and Axis My India exit polls indicate a hung assembly. CNX expects a win for the BJP.
- Axis My India is projecting that Tuesday’s results will go down to the wire. The agency has put a range of 102 and 120 seats for the BJP, and 104 to 122 seats for the Congress. The mean values for both (111 for the BJP and 113 for the Congress) are short of the half-way mark of 115.
- CNX is projecting a fourth consecutive win for the BJP, giving it 126 seats, to the Congress’ 89.
- Like CNX, The Jan Ki Baat exit poll projects the BJP ahead of the Congress. This polls sees the BJP winning between 108 and 128 seats, and the Congress improving its tally to a range of 95-115 seats.
- C-Voter is projecting a shot at power for the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, after a 15-year hiatus. The agency shows the Congress winning between 110 and 126 seats. The mean value there is 118, above the majority mark.
- The Lokniti-CSDS exit poll for Madhya Pradesh is projecting the highest tally of the set for the Congress at 126 seats, with the BJP falling to 94.
(The updated graphic corrects what was displayed as the CNX exit poll figures)
To win a majority in Madhya Pradesh, a party must win in 116 seats.
Pit Stop Before 2019
Five states—Chhatisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana—have gone to poll in a span of just over a month. These state elections will set the tone for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2019.
Each of these states are unique. From their problems to their power struggles, each state represents a different battle. Particularly for the two national parties. The Bharatiya Janata Party would see this as an opportunity to assert their dominance over Indain politics. While for the Indian National Congress, this will be the last litmus test to see if it still has relevance on the ground.
Over the course of the next few hours, a number of exit poll surveys will give an indication of who’s likely to win. Follow the live updates with BloombergQuint right here.
The Markets Are Watching
India’s stock markets cheered when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was swept to power in 2014. As the nation heads into the next general election in six months, Modi is likely to face a united opposition. And market experts are keenly watching the ongoing state elections as the results may offer a glimpse of what 2019 could throw up.
The possibility of a “weak and unstable” coalition would be a matter of concern for foreign investors, Jonathan Schiessl, fund manager at Ashburton, said in an interview with BloombergQuint. Yet, consistent policy making will be a bigger factor than the majority a government enjoys, he said.
Telangana: Will The Early Election Move Work?
India’s newest state, Telangana, will hold its state election on Dec. 7 after Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao dissolved its assembly in September.
Rao, or KCR as he is popularly known, said that he was forced to dissolve the state assembly on Sept. 6 after opposition parties wanted to “demoralise the state”. Political commentators reject this view and said that the chief minister is looking to cash in on his current popularity. The state election was earlier scheduled to coincide with the 2019 general election.
Telangana was bifurcated from Andhra Pradesh by the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Act of 2014, also known as the Telangana Act. Elections were held along with the general election of 2014 in which TRS won 63 out of total 119 seats.
The vote shares of the TRS, Congress and TDP was 35 percent, 25 percent and near-15 percent, respectively. This time, the elections are expected to be a different ballgame, with the Congress, TDP, Telangana Jana Samiti and CPI(M) uniting to form a “Mahakutami” (grand alliance) to take on the ruling party.
Rajasthan: Anti-Incumbency Factor
No government has been voted back to power in Rajasthan over the last two-and-half decades and that will be the biggest challenge for Bharatiya Janata Party’s Vasundhara Raje when the desert state goes to polls in Dec. 7.
The BJP swept to power in 2013, winning 163 out of the 200 seats in the state assembly with a 45 percent vote share and sending out the Ashok Gehlot-led dispensation. The performance was attributed to anti-incumbency and the “Modi wave” that brought the BJP back to power in the 2014 general elections.
The Congress’ tally fell to 21 seats from the 96 that it won in 2008, its vote share down by nearly 4 percent while that of the BJP rose by 11 percent—in line with historical voting trends. The party hasn’t announced a candidate for the CM’s post, possibly to avert voter base dilution.
Mizoram's Worries
On Nov. 28, 2018, Mizoram—the last northeast bastion of the Indian National Congress—will vote to power a new government that will oversee what is planned as India’s gateway to Southeast Asia.
With about half as many voters as south Mumbai, Mizoram is one of India’s fastest-growing, healthiest (second) and most-literate states (third).
However, our pre-election analysis of a state with 1.1 million people—as many as in Chandigarh—reveals it is challenged by poverty, high dropout rates, racial tensions and inter-district inequalities, worries that the new government will have to address.
Madhya Pradesh: Cracking India's Heartland
The result for Madhya Pradesh’s state elections is the most keenly awaited contest in all of the three states that have voted to form new governments.
Anti-incumbency is expected to be a factor as the state has handed Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan three successive terms. Yet, there are other factors to consider in all 230 constituencies of the central state.
The BJP swept to power in 2013, winning 166 seats in a 231-member assembly. Anti-incumbency didn’t affect the BJP then as it increased its vote share by nearly 7 percent from its 2008 tally. The Bahujan Samaj Party lost 3 seats.
Even as Chouhan remains the favourite to become the chief minister, Scindia, according to most exit polls, is the most popular candidate from the grand old party to become chief minister.
Here’s all you need to know about the key issues in Madhya Pradesh.
Chhatisgarh: The Jogi-Mayawati Alliance
The electoral battle for Chhattisgarh promises to be an exciting one with a new entrant in what was essentially a two-horse race between the Bharatiya Janata Party led by three-term Chief Minister Raman Singh and the Congress Party.
The Chhattisgarh assembly has 90 seats, with 46 needed to form the government. In the 2013 assembly elections, the BJP bagged 49 seats, and the Congress clinched 39. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party won one seat.
The Congress and BJP could face pressure from the alliance between BSP and Ajit Jogi's Janta Congress Chhattisgarh. Mayawati dealt a blow to Congress' hopes of forming a Mahagathbandhan, or grand alliance, when she joined hands with Jogi, a former Congressman.
India’s fastest growing state will also throw up a number of socio-economic challenges.