Kremlin Sees More Friction With West as Best Answer to Tensions
Amid Escalating Tensions With West, Kremlin Digs in for More
(Bloomberg) -- Russia is planning for more conflict with the West as confrontation grows over the poisoning of an opposition leader, the crisis in Belarus and fresh charges of meddling in the American presidential vote.
Rejecting U.S. and European accusations that it’s to blame for the mess in relations after years of targeting opponents, pressuring neighbors and hacking foreign governments’ computers, the Kremlin says it’s giving up any pretense of wanting to calm things down.
“We should just stop talking to them for awhile,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last week. “The people who are responsible for foreign policy in the West don’t understand the need for mutually respectful communication.”
While this rhetoric doubtless includes a large dose of bravado, it’s a sign that a strain of thinking that portends even more potential flashpoints with some of the world’s biggest powers is gaining currency in the Kremlin.
‘No Limit’
A prominent Russian foreign policy analyst, Timofey Bordachev, last month argued for a fundamentally new approach away from efforts to integrate into the world order led by the U.S. and Europe. His article arguing that Russia will never earn the respect of the West and should stop trying is viewed as a kind of manifesto inside the government, an official said.
“As we are discovering, there’s no limit to how bad things can get,” said Andrey Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Russian International Affairs Council.
Even after years of steadily growing friction since the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, Kremlin insiders profess frustration at the situation. They reject blame for the litany of issues that have come up since, from election hacking to wars in Syria and Libya to assassinations of enemies in Europe, chalking up the steady string of sanctions and other punishments from the West that followed to “Russophobia.”
Now, they say they see no reason to back down in the face of pressure, hoping against all evidence that the U.S. and Europe will finally come around and recognize what Moscow sees as Russia’s legitimate interests as a global power.
Senior Russian officials see the relationship with the West as a new Cold War. Prominent voices that for decades argued for centering policy around the relationship with Washington have given up hope of rebuilding it, according to people familiar with internal Kremlin debates. The confrontation is seen as ideological, as well as over power, pitting a Russia that paints itself as champion of conservative values against a predominantly liberal West.
A more confrontational approach to the U.S., the predominant superpower, and Europe, Russia’s largest trading partner, is fraught with risks for a Kremlin that’s wary of becoming too dependent on China and facing challenges in what it sees as its own sphere of influence from Turkey. Fears new tensions would bring more western sanctions have helped push the ruble near record lows.
The latest source of conflict has come over the alleged use of the nerve agent Novichok against opposition leader Alexey Navalny while on a trip to Siberia. The European Union last week sanctioned six senior associates of President Vladimir Putin in retaliation.
“The Navalny story was direct intervention in Russia’s domestic affairs,” Bordachev said. “I think that was a surprise.”
As in the Cold War, arms control is one of the few areas where dialog continues. The U.S. says it hopes a deal to extend a key pact could be done soon.
For Washington and its allies, the risk is that Putin will expand hostile behavior, ranging from closer cooperation with Iran to more nuclear brinkmanship, said Kori Schake, a former senior official in the George W. Bush administration.
“If the Russians have the impression that the relationship couldn’t get worse than it already is, then they don’t have any particular incentive to worry about our reaction to things and try and limit their own malevolent behavior to sustain the relationship,” she said.
Risks Abound
The latest tensions with the West add to a list of challenges facing the Russian leader as he seeks to extend his two-decade rule until 2036. The economic pain of the coronavirus epidemic has only worsened the blow to consumer incomes from several years of economic stagnation, fueling discontent. Worried about new sanctions, the Kremlin has been saving billions of dollars, limiting its ability to spend to offset the recession.
There’s also no sign this approach will work any better than Russia’s previous efforts to preserve dialog even as it sticks with the aggressive policies that have angered the West.
The continuing confrontation has alienated just about all of Russia’s most prominent advocates in the West. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is deeply frustrated with Putin, according to people close to her, as the Navalny poisoning was only the latest in what Berlin sees as a string of Russia moves to harm ties. French President Emmanuel Macron’s repeated efforts at detente with Putin are also viewed as having produced no tangible results so far, according to EU diplomats.
Little Deterrence
When Macron raised the Navalny case in a phone call with Putin last month, the Russian leader brushed him off with suggestions the activist may have poisoned himself. That kind of dismissive treatment provoked an unusual leak of details of the conversation in France, angering the Kremlin.
In the U.S., Russia is viewed as radioactive across the political spectrum, with exception only of President Donald Trump, who hasn’t been able to deliver on the improvement in ties he promised when he ran in 2016.
In the Kremlin, the prospect of a Joe Biden administration is raising fears of a new round of pressure. U.S. officials say Russia has been working to undermine Biden’s campaign, a claim Moscow denies.
Putin’s refusal to cede any ground means the freeze will persist no matter who is in the White House, according to Alina Polyakova, president and chief executive of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington.
“There’s little we can do to deter Russian aggression,” said Polyakova. “And the Kremlin is well aware of that.”
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