A Long Brexit Delay Could Shorten the Time Left for Theresa May
Practically, it’s hard to see May staying in place if her Cabinet told her time was up.
(Bloomberg) -- Theresa May’s time as Britain’s prime minister is running out fast. But how fast?
May last month announced her intention to resign, but that was conditional on her Brexit deal passing a vote in the House of Commons. As that remains a remote prospect, it’s not clear when she actually plans to go.
She has been held in place until now by the U.K.’s air of permanent crisis: When the country might crash out of the European Union at the end of the week, it’s not the moment to fire the pilot. A long extension of Britain’s EU membership, which is expected to be agreed to this week, would remove that reason for May to stay.
Indeed, as the purpose of the extension would be for the U.K. to change its approach to Brexit, such a lengthy delay would be a good reason for May to go.
She could simply announce her departure. But what if she doesn’t? More than 100 Conservative members of Parliament voted that they had no confidence in her in a formal attempt to oust her last December, but it wasn’t enough to force her out. The number is likely to have risen since then. But Conservative Party rules forbid holding another ballot until the end of this year, and there’s no formal process for removing her before then.
Practically, it’s hard to see May staying in place if her Cabinet told her time was up. They might be tempted to let her play out her current strategy of trying to reach a Brexit deal with the opposition Labour Party. If that fails, she could hold so-called “indicative votes’’ in Parliament to see if there’s an alternative approach that has majority support.
Perhaps the Cabinet will allow her to stay until votes have been cast in next month’s European Parliament elections. But plenty of ministers have leadership campaigns simmering, and they are likely to want to get on.
The key figure is likely to be a man who holds no public role, May’s most trusted adviser, her husband Philip. Whatever he says will carry more weight with May than any of her Cabinet colleagues.
To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Hutton in London at rhutton1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Emma Ross-Thomas
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