51% Indians Now Live In BJP-Ruled States, Down From 2017 Peak Of 71%
Bharatiya Janata Party advertisments featuring images of Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, sits outside a store at Godowlia Market in Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India. (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)  

51% Indians Now Live In BJP-Ruled States, Down From 2017 Peak Of 71%

With the Bharatiya Janata Party losing power in three Hindi-heartland states--Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh--the population under BJP rule has dropped by 254 million, from nearly 888 million (71 percent of India’s population) in 2017 to nearly 634 million (51 percent of the population) in Dec. 2018.

The BJP now has a government--or is part of the government--in 16 states, up from seven states in May 24, 2014, when the party came to power at the Centre: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Goa, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura, Sikkim, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh.

51% Indians Now Live In BJP-Ruled States, Down From 2017 Peak Of 71%

At its peak, the BJP had governments (or was part of the government) in 21 states.

With yesterday’s election performance, the Congress now has a government or is part of the government in five states--Punjab, Karnataka, MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh--with 21 percent of the population, up from.two states with 7 percent population in 2017.

The Congress lost elections in Mizoram, where the Mizo National Front won 26 seats in a 40-member assembly. In Telangana, the incumbent Telangana Rashtra Samithi was voted back to power with 88 seats in the 119-member assembly.

Also read: Congress Rises In Heartland In A Challenge To Modi Ahead Of 2019

Other parties are in power in seven states--Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Odisha, Mizoram, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Jammu & Kashmir is under Governor’s rule.

Of 678 seats in MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram--which account for a sixth or 15. percent of India’s population--the Congress won 305 seats, and the BJP won 199 seats, Election Commission data show.

The BJP lost 180 seats that it won in 2013, and the Congress gained 162 across three state assemblies--Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh--as results were declared on Dec. 11, 2018, according to an IndiaSpend analysis of electoral data, as we reported on Dec. 12, 2018.

In 2013, the BJP won 377 seats and the Congress 118 in the three Hindi-heartland states. The BJP had no seats in Mizoram in 2013, and this was the first election for Telangana, which was created in 2014. This means the BJP lost 48 percent seats it won in 2013, and the Congress gained 137 percent, we reported.

In MP, the vote shares of the BJP and the Congress were 41 percent and 40.9 percent, respectively. In 2013, the comparable vote shares were 45 percent and 36 percent, we reported on Dec. 12, 2018.

In Rajasthan, the BJP and Congress vote shares were 38.8 percent and 39.3 percent, respectively. In 2013, the BJP vote share was 45 percent and the Congress 33 percent.

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP and Congress recorded vote shares of percent and 43 percent, respectively. In 2013, this was 41 percent for the BJP and 40 percent for the Congress.

(This copy was published in a special arrangement with IndiaSpend)

Also read: India Prepares For Mammoth 2019 Election

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