Italy Lawmakers Root for Deal as More Than Third Would Lose Jobs
Italy Lawmakers Root for Deal as More Than Third Would Lose Jobs
(Bloomberg) --
Efforts by Italy’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party to form a government and avoid snap elections might be supported by members of parliament’s survival instinct.
More than two in five would lose their jobs in case of early elections, with Matteo Salvini’s League expected to win an absolute majority. The stake is even higher for parties pushing for a PD-Five Star majority.
Five Star would lose 114 of its 216 deputies in the lower house, according to a simulation by YouTrend for Agi, assuming the League runs with the right-wing Brothers of Italy only and not Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia.
While the Democratic Party and allies would see the number of their troops increase, at least half of the current PD MPs wouldn’t be reconfirmed, according to a PD official, who declined to be named because the estimate is private.
The majority of PD lawmakers are still Matteo Renzi loyalists -- picked by the party’s former leader and premier in 2018. Yet, the next election’s lists would be compiled by the current party head, Nicola Zingaretti.
That may be one of the reasons why some Five Star leaders, including veteran Roberta Lombardi, are openly criticizing their chief Luigi Di Maio for being too much of a hardliner in talks with the PD.
“Some parties within the current parliament have very little incentive to push for early elections, as they may lose seats,” Matteo Germano, head of multi-asset at Amundi, and colleagues including Sergio Bertoncini said in a note. “In particular, Five Star and the Democratic Party could suffer a defeat.”
Left-wing Liberi e Uguali, which is pushing for a government deal, would lose all of its 14 MPs in the lower house. Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia would see its deputies shrink to a third, being left out of a pre-election alliance with Salvini. The League and Brothers of Italy would more than double their seats.
YouTrend simulations were based on polls of polls as of Aug. 1.
To contact the reporters on this story: Marco Bertacche in Milan at mbertacche@bloomberg.net;Tommaso Ebhardt in Milan at tebhardt@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Kingdon at ckingdon@bloomberg.net, Jana Randow
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