Iranian Crude Tanker Leaves Gibraltar: What Happens Next?
The tanker is heading east, deeper into the Mediterranean Sea and has changed its name to Adrian Darya 1.
(Bloomberg) -- The Iranian oil tanker impounded off Gibraltar since early July set sail on Sunday after local authorities rejected a U.S. bid to detain the vessel. The supertanker has been renamed and reflagged and is now heading east into the Mediterranean. The U.S. has threatened sanctions against any party dealing with the vessel.
Where is the ship now?
The tanker is heading east, deeper into the Mediterranean Sea. It has changed its name to Adrian Darya 1 and is now sailing under the Iranian flag. It was previously named Grace 1 and flew the flag of Panama.
Why did Gibraltar allow the ship to leave?
The government of Gibraltar says European Union regulations didn’t allow it to seek a court order to seize the tanker, which the U.S. accuses of breaching its sanctions by exporting Iranian oil. That’s because of “differences in the sanctions regimes applicable to Iran in the EU and the U.S.,” according to a statement from the Gibraltar government. “The EU sanctions regime against Iran -- which is applicable in Gibraltar -- is much narrower than that applicable in the U.S.”
Is the vessel still carrying Iranian crude?
Yes, it appears to be. The draft of the ship -- how deep it is sitting in the water -- is still reported as being 22.1 meters, which indicates that its full cargo of about 2 million barrels of crude oil is on board. The draft is manually entered by the captain into the ship’s Automatic Identification System, so it could be wrong, but there is no evidence that the cargo was discharged while the vessel was anchored off Gibraltar.
Where is the ship heading?
According to vessel-tracking data from the ship, it is now heading for the Greek port of Kalamata. This probably won’t be its final destination, as the port is too small to accommodate a ship the size of the Adrian Darya 1. Oil tankers sometimes anchor there to stock up on provisions or change crew, but they cannot take on fuel at that location. Greek authorities haven’t received formal notification that the vessel intends to head to a port in the country, according to a spokesman for the nation’s coast guard.
Where will the cargo end up?
It remains unclear where the crude on the Adrian Darya 1 will be offloaded. Iran gave assurances to the government of Gibraltar that the ship wouldn’t sail to Syria.
The most likely course of action is for the ship to discharge its cargo onto smaller vessels in a process known as a ship-to-ship transfer. Those smaller tankers would then deliver the cargo to its final destination. Before doing that, the Adrian Darya 1 would probably switch off the transponder that signals its position and "go dark" in an attempt to conceal its actions. This may not be enough to hide a ship that has become so closely watched.
Can the vessel get back to Iran?
The ship cannot get back to Iran if it continues on its current course without first offloading at least some of its cargo. It’s simply too full to pass through the Suez Canal.
Even if it were able to traverse that link, that route poses the risk that the vessel could be seized by Egypt at the request of the U.S. While Iranian tankers continue to pass through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, some have been prevented from making the journey.
If the ship is prevented from passing through the canal, or it is deemed too risky to attempt making that passage, its only alternative route to Iran would be to retrace its voyage back out into the Atlantic Ocean and around the tip of Africa. That journey is about 11,500 miles from Gibraltar to the Strait of Hormuz and the vessel would certainly need to take on fuel before it could attempt it and that could prove problematic.
Who will provide the ship with fuel and provisions?
Obtaining fuel and provisions could prove difficult for the Adrian Darya 1. The U.S. has warned that ports, banks and anyone else who does business with the vessel or its crew might be subject to sanctions, according to two administration officials. That would make it difficult to refuel in the Mediterranean, as European or North African ports and fuel suppliers will probably be cautious about dealing with the ship.
One option would be for the ship to be resupplied with fuel and provisions by ship-to-ship transfer from a vessel owned by an entity that has no exposure to the U.S., or is prepared to risk being sanctioned. A Russian or Syrian vessel could fit that bill.
Any attempt by the U.S. Navy to impede resupply at sea would mark a significant escalation in recent tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which would be almost certain to respond by increasing its harassment of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Sixth Fleet referred Bloomberg to the U.S. Justice Department and Office of the Secretary of Defense for any questions concerning the tanker.
To contact the reporters on this story: Julian Lee in London at jlee1627@bloomberg.net;Verity Ratcliffe in Dubai at vratcliffe1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alaric Nightingale at anightingal1@bloomberg.net, Rachel Graham, John Deane
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