EU Hones Plan for Long Brexit Delay

04 Apr 2019, 03:18 PM IST

(Bloomberg) -- The European Union increasingly sees a long Brexit delay as the most likely outcome of an emergency leaders’ summit next week, according to EU officials, even though it’s neither side’s preference.

Prime Minister Theresa May’s commitment to cross-party talks with opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, as well as signals the U.K. is starting preparations for the possibility of European elections, has encouraged EU governments because they believe it has significantly reduced the risk of Britain leaving the bloc without a deal, officials said.

But the EU is pessimistic about the chances of the British Parliament passing the deal by the end of next week -- the deadline the bloc has set -- making a long delay the likely outcome. May and Corbyn hold their first meeting in London on Wednesday afternoon, and the talks are fraught with risks for both politicians.

With the U.K.’s options narrowing, the EU has sketched out a plan:

If May gets her Brexit deal ratified by Parliament by April 12, the U.K. will be allowed to stay in the EU until May 22 and won’t have to take part in the European elections on May 23
If the April 12 deadline is missed, EU leaders are likely to offer the U.K. a long extension -- conditional on the country taking part in the European elections
The U.K. could still leave the EU at any time before the end of a long extension if Parliament passes the deal, and wouldn’t have to take part in EU elections if approval happens by May 22

“April 12 is the final date for possible approval,” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told the European Parliament in Brussels. “If the House of Commons does not adopt a stance before that date, no short-term extension will be possible.”

That potentially would give May 48 hours after the summit on April 10 to have one last shot at getting her deal approved before a long delay is triggered.

EU governments are still divided over the duration of a long extension, and many acknowledge the difficulties associated with keeping the U.K. in the bloc for many more months.

Ireland is among those pushing for as long a delay as possible, with France and Lithuania arguing against one at all. While the decision has to be unanimous among the 27 leaders, EU diplomats are confident that despite public rhetoric, none of them will use a veto and risk pushing the U.K out into legal limbo.

Making it clear the U.K. has the power to leave a long extension early may encourage leaders to set a end-date further in the future than they might otherwise, an official said. A year’s delay is most likely, but 21 months is also in the mix, the official said.

Another reason for setting a later expiration is that internal EU business -- the elections and the appointment of a new European Commission and EU President -- could tie the bloc up until the end of 2020, making meaningful talks with the U.K. difficult, another official said.

While the EU has until now made clear that any long extension needed to come with a change in U.K. politics, such as a referendum or general election, leaders are unlikely to insist on this. The U.K. would, however, have to agree not to interfere in sensitive EU business while still a member and also present a clear plan for the months ahead.

--With assistance from Birgit Jennen.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ian Wishart in Brussels at iwishart@bloomberg.net;Dara Doyle in Dublin at ddoyle1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Emma Ross-Thomas, Stuart Biggs